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February 8, 2002
WASHINGTON -- The al-Qaida terrorist organization would fragment if Osama bin Laden were killed, with surviving lieutenants taking over sections of the network to pursue their own goals, a top Pentagon intelligence official says.
At least six leaders are dead, and two more are in U.S. custody, but more than a dozen key lieutenants remain at large. So, for the moment, intelligence officials say, al-Qaida can reconstitute itself.
Absent bin Laden, the surviving leaders would have difficulty keeping the terrorist group together, Vice Adm. Thomas R. Wilson, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, told the Senate Intelligence Committee.
"There is no identified successor capable of rallying so many divergent nationalities, interests, and groups to create the kind of cohesion he fostered among Sunni Islamic extremists around the world," Wilson said in written testimony.
Previously, U.S. officials have identified bin Laden's top two deputies, Egyptians Ayman al-Zawahri and Mohammed Atef, as potential successors. Atef, a military commander, was killed by a U.S. airstrike in November near Kabul. Al-Zawahri, a doctor and bin Laden's spiritual adviser, remains at large, along with the terrorist leader himself.
Abu Zubaydah, an international terrorist operations chief, and Saif al-Adil, the head of bin Laden's security detail, also are identified as possible successors.
Wilson said that without bin Laden, al-Qaida could "splinter into a number of loosely affiliated groups, united by a common cause and sharing common operatives."
A splintered al-Qaida probably wouldn't have the wherewithal to pull off the complex, simultaneous operations al-Qaida is known for, but they would remain a threat, Wilson said.
"The group has suffered a loss of prestige, institutional memory, contacts and financial assets that will ultimately degrade its effectiveness," Wilson said of al-Qaida. "Many key officials and operatives remain, and new personalities have already begun to emerge."
CIA director George Tenet told the Senate Intelligence Committee on Wednesday, "Al-Qaida leaders still at large are working to reconstitute the organization and resume its terrorist operations."
U.S. intelligence is tracking developments in a number of places where al-Qaida leaders fleeing Afghanistan may try to land. These include Somalia, Sudan, Chechnya, Lebanon, Palestinian areas, Yemen and elsewhere. So far, officials haven't seen any mass movement of al-Qaida members to a particular place.
One reason bin Laden remained popular among extremists is that he preaches a doctrine that spans all of Sunni Islam, and he doesn't limit his philosophy to the Arab world, officials and experts say.
His ranks include Muslims from southeast Asia, Europe and non-Arab Africa, but it is unclear if any of his chief lieutenants would maintain his international, pan-Sunni vision.