 |
||||||||
 |
||||||||
|
||||||||
|
Retaking rebel zone unlikely to end war
By SIBYLLA BRODZINSKY and DAVID ADAMS LA SOMBRA, Colombia -- At this remote rural village in southern Colombia, left-wing rebels relax under overcast skies, seemingly unconcerned by a large government offensive coming their way. They've seen no sign of the Colombian army yet, just two hours down a dirt road from the main military staging area at San Vicente del Caguan. With rifles slung casually over their shoulders, the rebels say they aren't running. "We will be here waiting for the army," said a rebel commander who goes by the name "El Pija." "We'll take them on. Those are our orders." Fed up with continued rebel attacks, kidnappings and sabotage of state-owned oil and electricity infrastructure, Colombian president Andres Pastrana last week broke off peace talks with rebel chiefs of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). He ordered the armed forces to retake a large swath of territory ceded to the rebels in 1998 as part of a peace process. Following an intense aerial bombardment of rebel camps, air strips and bridges in the zone, elite army troops re-entered three of the five municipalities that had been under FARC control. As the military continues its slow advance into the zone, Pastrana is basking in a wave of public approval, as well as expressions of international solidarity from the United States and other allies. But as the dust settles, analysts say the new military campaign is unlikely to end the war any sooner. According to Alfredo Rangel, a former national security adviser, the retaking of the zone was as much motivated by a need to satisfy public opinion as it was for strategic reasons. "The military spent three years saying that the rebel zone was at the root of everything evil in the war, so they have to make a show of retaking control," he said. But, Rangel added, "no matter how well this operation goes for the army," it is unlikely to change the overall situation on the ground. He pointed out that prior to the creation of the safe haven, government forces only controlled the towns, hardly daring to patrol rural areas where the rebels held sway. That is already the picture emerging after reporters toured part of the zone over the weekend. By the time army troops entered the main towns, most FARC fighters had gone. A small rear-guard was left behind -- as in La Sombra -- while larger guerrilla units are presumed to have moved deeper inside the zone. "Retaking the zone doesn't mean much militarily," said Daniel Garcia-Pena, a former government peace commissioner now running for Congress. "Given the nature of guerrilla warfare and given the geography of southern Colombia, the FARC will be forced back into the mountains. They will rely more on hit-and-run terrorist tactics." The army is aware that reclaiming total authority over the entire area will be almost impossible. A guerrilla stronghold for decades, the 16,000 square-mile zone is a sparsely populated area of grazing land and patches of jungle, a third the size of Florida. Generals in charge of the operation told the Colombian daily El Tiempo gaining control of the zone could take up to six months, calling it one of the most complex and extensive operations the Colombian military has undertaken. El Pija, commander of a mobile rebel squad, said the FARC had been preparing for a break-off in talks since January, when the three-year peace process went into crisis. It was briefly saved through last-minute mediation by the United Nations. Last week's hijacking of a domestic airliner by the FARC, and the kidnapping of a senator on board, proved the last straw. But public expectations of a quick military victory are greatly overblown, experts warn. During the last three years, all sides in the conflict have exploited the peace process to recruit and rearm. The Colombian military is better trained and equipped today, thanks to internal restructuring and U.S. military support. But the FARC, financed by drugs, extortion and kidnapping, has meanwhile grown to an army of 18,000. Right-wing paramilitary forces also have used the drug trade and extra-official ties to the military and police, to spread terror. "The past three years have served us to become more prepared militarily and politically," El Pija said. "We made good use of that time," he said, readjusting an Israeli-made Galil automatic rifle slung across his back. The commander's comment appeared to confirm what the Colombian military had warned all along: that the rebels had used the zone not to negotiate peace but to train fighters for an escalation of the war. Among the wooden bunks in the abandoned camp that once housed senior FARC leader Joaquin Gomez, a soldier had left behind a notebook filled with geometrical calculations on how to shoot down an airborne helicopter. Dozens of bullet casings lay strewn on the ground near an obstacle course set up next to a vegetable garden in the camp. Another rebel camp just behind the site where government and rebel negotiators haggled for three years was littered with news summaries of the day before the talks broke off. On one bulletin board, someone had scribbled "The people ask "if the gringos come, how do we get rid of them?' " The FARC respond: "with guerrilla warfare and an organized people." The United States has insisted it has no plans to send in troops to fight in Colombia's messy war. The Bush Administration is considering easing restrictions on future U.S. aid to Colombia, which has up to now been limited to counter-narcotics purposes. U.S. officials say that could include making sophisticated intelligence data available to assist the Colombian government in its pursuit of the rebels. The rupture of the peace talks is likely to bring an escalation of Colombia's political violence, which already claims 3,500 lives each year, analysts warn. The FARC has wasted no time to prove its military muscle remains intact, striking targets across the country in recent days. Before retreating the rebels cut power and telephone lines in the former enclave, and left bus bombs along the main highway into the zone. Local residents also reported a number of alleged political killings by the FARC as well as kidnappings. There was no new word Tuesday on the fate of Colombian presidential candidate Ingrid Betancourt, abducted Saturday at a rebel roadblock along with her campaign manager. Colombia's Interior Minister, Armando Estrada, said the government had ruled out rumors of a rebel offer to exchange Betancourt for jailed FARC prisoners. "The guerrillas were ready for this. They are just getting started," Garcia-Pena said. "There are going to be some ugly times."
 © 2006 • All Rights Reserved • St. Petersburg Times
490 First Avenue South • St. Petersburg, FL 33701 • 727-893-8111 
|
From the Times wire desk
From the AP |
