Why make leap into Middle East now?

Washington Bureau Chief FRITZ E-mail: Click here Archive

© St. Petersburg Times
published April 8, 2002

WASHINGTON -- Why now?

That was the question White House reporters asked repeatedly last week after President Bush decided to dispatch Secretary of State Colin Powell to the Middle East. What they wanted to know, in essence, was why Bush, who did not respond immediately after the latest escalation of violence between Israel and the Palestinians, had decided to do so at this juncture.

Neither Powell nor the president would answer the question directly. They said they were worried that the continuing violence would prevent the peace process from being reconstituted.

There were other reasons, too. But they were described in vague terms.

"We saw a deteriorating situation with some of our best friends in the region," Powell said, "but, more importantly, (with) some of Israel's best Arab friends in the region with whom they had developed solid relations over the years."

Here, Powell was referring to Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, which have tried in the past to help the United States resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In the past week, the leaders of these nations have started telling the White House that their citizens are demanding their countries take a more confrontational stance toward Israel.

The support of Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia are important to Bush for a number of reasons. The most obvious one: Without pressure from them, Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat cannot be expected to agree to a cease-fire or a resumption of negotiations.

Bush also needs the support of these Arab nations if he intends to continue his war against terrorism by focusing on Iraq. Although the latest flare-up in the Middle East has delayed the administration's efforts to win support from allies for an attack on Iraq, the president has by no means given up on that plan.

In fact, many Bush administration insiders argue that replacing the regime in Baghdad would be an invaluable step in the pursuit of peace in the Middle East. Iraq's influence on the violence is especially apparent now that Saddam Hussein is offering $25,000 to the families of the suicide bombers.

And finally, there is the issue of oil -- the three-letter word that is almost never mentioned in these discussions, even though it is central to the U.S. interests in the Middle East.

Arab leaders are said to be telling U.S. diplomats in unvarnished terms that the United States risks losing its ready access to Middle Eastern oil unless it persuades Israel to withdraw from Palestinian territory. Both Iran and Iraq have called on their Arab neighbors to suspend oil exports to the United States.

And that may be the best answer to the reporters' question of: Why now? It was not until the president saw clearly that this conflict was likely to have disastrous consequences directly on America's gas-guzzling motorists and the U.S. economy that he decided to move forcefully in the Middle East.

We do not know whether Bush was also motivated by fears that the Palestinian terrorists could start blowing themselves up in the United States as well as in Israel. Sens. Chris Dodd, D-Conn., and Arlen Specter, R-Pa., raised this prospect Sunday.

"It could happen here," Dodd said bluntly.

Of course, Bush recognizes his moral obligation as leader of the free world to assist in bringing peace to the Middle East. Nevertheless, if American interests were any less dependent on peace in the Middle East, he certainly would have waited even longer to get involved.

Bush resisted the option of getting deeply involved in the Middle East mess as long as he did for a number of reasons: He feared that it would impede his war on terrorism; he feared his efforts would be likened to those of former President Clinton, whom he has often criticized; and he knew that his contacts with Arafat would be viewed as "negotiating with terrorists" -- something he has promised he will never do.

Bush was right. All three of those things are happening. At the same time, he should have known -- and probably did -- that he would be sucked deeply into this morass, just as his predecessors were.

-- Sara Fritz can be reached by e-mail at fritz@sptimes.com or by telephone at (202) 463-0576.

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