State: Democrats aren't feeling down or out

Republicans control the Florida Legislature and the Governor's Mansion, and the new political districts they have drawn may well strengthen their dominance. Gov. Jeb Bush overwhelmingly leads his Democratic rivals in early polls. And his brother in the White House enjoys enormous popularity after winning the excruciating Florida recount in 2000.

Yet Democrats sound fired up as they converge in Orlando this weekend for their state party convention. A record 2,500 delegates will size up their party's next would-be standard bearers on the national and state stages.

"People are just plain mad," said Monte Friedkin, Palm Beach County Democratic Party chairman. "They're upset that the Democrats have lost so many (legislative) seats and lost the Governor's Mansion, and they feel they were robbed in 2000. People are just really fired up about the way the state is going, and I think you'll see Democrats coming out of the woodwork to vote this year."

The underlying question for both the 2002 governor's race and 2004 presidential race: Do Democrats need a fresh face such as Tampa lawyer Bill McBride in the governor's race or North Carolina Sen. John Edwards in the campaign for president, or are they better off with known quantities such as Janet Reno and Al Gore?

The convention is drawing national attention because five potential 2004 presidential candidates -- notably, former Vice President Gore and his former running mate, Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut -- will be courting Democrats in the home of the recount. Other presidential aspirants attending include Edwards and Sens. Chris Dodd of Connecticut and John Kerry of Massachusetts.

For most of those potential candidates, the convention will be their opportunity to make a first impression in the country's biggest battleground state. They hope to fire up potential 2004 supporters, but they are searching for the right pitch for challenging President Bush. The president has had strong popularity ratings since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

"Since Sept. 11, what's happened with George W. Bush as president and the team he established with Colin Powell, Don Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney, it's real tough for Democrats to criticize," former Florida Democratic Party Chairman Charles Whitehead said.

President Bush hasn't shown signs of big coattails, however, and his approval ratings are dropping a bit. The Democratic strategy has been to stand behind him in the war against terrorism but challenge his domestic policies.

"George Bush is in trouble because he has not shown the leadership on the domestic front that he needs," said Terry McAuliffe, chairman of the Democratic National Committee.

The convention will be Gore's first high-profile speech in Florida since Election Day. While some Democrats in Washington are quietly suggesting he's finished, many of the Florida Democrats heading to Orlando say they believe Gore rightfully belongs in the White House today.

"Among Florida Democratic activists, I think it will be a triumphant return," predicted Jim Kane, who runs the nonpartisan Florida Voter poll.

Given the location, the national candidates can't avoid mentioning the contested election. But some Democrats are wary of pushing it too hard. A recent St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald poll indicated three of four Florida voters say the 2000 election dispute will have no effect on whether they decide to vote this November.

"I think the election's over," said Democratic U.S. Rep. Jim Davis of Tampa. "There's too much else happening right now that needs to be addressed."

Florida Democratic Party Chairman Bob Poe said it will be a balancing act.

"Our job," he said, "is to make sure we take the anger that came out of the 2000 election in a positive way to get people energized."

Notwithstanding the appearance of the potential presidential candidates (those missing from the mix include Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt and Vermont Gov. Howard Dean), party leaders want to focus on the governor's race.

There will be no straw poll this year, which will help candidates save money. But the convention will feature campaigns to win the battle of perception.

McBride's supporters want to prove he has the momentum and grass-roots support to have a shot at beating Reno, the former attorney general, in the Democratic primary. Recent polls show him trailing Reno by 30 points, but many Democratic establishment leaders contend McBride is the only candidate who can appeal to moderate voters and beat Bush. McBride picked up endorsements Thursday from more than a half-dozen legislators in South Florida, Reno's home terrority.

"The press is killing us, putting this out all over the the country that it's a foregone conclusion Janet Reno will win the primary," said Hillsborough County Democratic Chairman Mike Scionti, a McBride supporter who expects McBride will have 1,400 delegates in his corner. "You're going to see Bill's strength all over this state."

McBride bombed in his first high-profile speech to Democrats last summer. Since then, his speaking style has improved, and he worked to refine it this week.

Other gubernatorial candidates speaking are state House Minority Leader Lois Frankel of West Palm Beach, state Sen. Daryl Jones of Miami and Bob Kunst, an obscure political activist.

The convention will give Jones and Frankel needed exposure. Frankel has hinted she may drop out of the race, and many Democrats are wondering if she will use her speech to announce her candidacy for attorney general.

Tonight, Reno and McBride hold dueling receptions to court Democrats. Reno has never been much of a schmoozer, but she will be working the crowd hard in Orlando. Her goal is to enhance the impression that she has the nomination locked up and that the party will unite behind her.

"What we need to show as Democrats is that the party is united against Jeb Bush, and we've got the energy and the momentum to beat him," said Mo Elleithee, Reno's campaign manager. "The only way we get four more years of Jeb Bush is if Democrats don't do the work of getting people out to vote."

-- Adam C. Smith can be reached at (727)893-8241 or adam@sptimes.com.

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