Opinion: Close French elections shocked many

Jacques Chirac has got to be a lucky man. On Sunday, two weeks before the crucial election, he was, in fact, already re-elected president of France for another five years.

Most Americans probably didn't notice, but most of France was thunderstruck when Jean-Marie Le Pen, a far-right winger, who complains about Arab immigration into France, most of France's neighbors, and, in truth almost everything including the United States, came in second in the first round of the French elections.

The hapless Socialist prime minister, Lionel Jospin, who came in third, one percentage point behind, announced he was quitting politics. Until Sunday's votes came in, he had confidently expected that he would be Chirac's opponent when voters go to the polls again on May 5. After five years as France's prime minister, he thought he had a good chance of being France's next president.

Chirac, who has a winning smile and many say loose control of his personal expenses, just squeezed into first place Sunday ahead of Le Pen when 28 percent of the voters yawned and stayed away from the polls to let 16 candidates fight it out. Too many forgot Jospin, a nice but dull man, in the political clamor. They are also tired of crime and usual politics.

"Something has to change," said my friend, Pierre, when I talked to him on the telephone Monday. But I can confidently predict that hats will be eaten all over France by shocked Frenchmen if Le Pen even comes close in two weeks. Chirac, a conservative, might have had a hard time beating Jospin, but some "experts" now predict that when Sunday's results sink in, he will win three-quarters of the votes against Le Pen.

The results in France can almost certainly be explained by the low turnout, the high number of candidates splitting the vote, a general feeling that crime in the streets is getting out of hand and that French politicians are too small and elite a class. On Sunday, the French were fed up. Le Pen is also a fiery demagogue who makes an excellent speech in beautiful French.

All that being said, yes, his showing is serious. The World War II Holocaust in Europe was not the mere "detail" he once called it. He was 2 percent ahead of his 15 percent in the last elections. Anti-Semitism exists in France. It is not a national characteristic, however, and probably not much, if any, stronger than in the United States. Anti-Semitism is also a convenient stone for some to throw at anyone who dares disagree with an Israeli policy. Most Americans and I would bet most Frenchmen are not infected. But it is still serious and we have a duty to fight it.

It is an indication of how times have changed that the story didn't make the front pages of many newspapers and seemed to be unnoted on several newscasts. The love-hate relations between the United States and France go back almost to the Revolutionary War, which the American Colonies won with considerable French help, including several national heros led by Gen. Lafayette.

When you mention Paris, you need three or four pages to list the names of American authors and artists who considered it their second home. So why the love-hate relations? When you mention love-hate to most Frenchmen, they almost invariably cry, "No, no, it's not hate. The term is too strong."

France is a democracy and, when the chips are down, has been a solid ally. With her decline as a world power her leaders are jealous. They cherish the conviction that their life is better than ours and many have distrusted the United States since they and the British were forced to abandon their occupation of the Suez Canal in 1956. Britain, of course, drew the opposite conclusion -- that it should never again distance itself from America.

Most American haters of France I've heard have never been there and know little or nothing about either history or current affairs. Some others may have been "ugly American" tourists who made up their mind in a day or so when the French couldn't understand their shouts in English and looked down at their sloppy attire.

With the general "war" against terrorism, with the events in the Middle East, with their own politics, Americans have other things on their mind than the first round of a two-round election in France. Le Pen's showing is a useful wakeup not only in France but outside it as well. Even Chirac will have to try to shape up.

I voice all the above opinions confidently. I don't think I will have to eat any hats come the second round of the French elections on May 5. And please don't send me any. I won't be home.

-- Wilbur G. Landrey is the retired chief correspondent of the St. Petersburg Times.

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