Place an Ad Calendars Classified Forums Sports Weather

sptimes.com Text-only News sections Arts & Entertainment AP The Wire Business Citrus County Columnists Floridian Hernando County Hillsborough Letters Movies Neighborhood Times News Update North Pinellas North of Tampa Obituaries Opinion Pasco County South Pinellas Sports State Tampa Bay TV Times World & Nation  Find your local news section Weekly sections Brandon Times City Times Homes Outdoors Perspective Personal Tech Taste Travel Weekend Xpress Special Sections Arena football Buccaneers College football Devil Rays Lightning Police reports Schools Seniority Subscriber Services Subscribe Renew Help Advertise Place an ad In print Online Market Info Join Us Internships Scholarships Times Jobs Contact us

Guesses welcome

This year's Derby appears wide open, with morning-line favorites generating little buzz.

By BRANT JAMES, Times Staff Writer
© St. Petersburg Times
published May 4, 2002

128th Kentucky Derby • WHEN/WHERE: 6:04 p.m. today, Churchill Downs, Louisville. • TV: Ch. 8. (Programming starts at 5 p.m.)

[AP photo] Florida Derby and Blue Grass Stakes winner Harlan's Holiday endures a teeth checkup after a morning workout.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. -- Ken McPeek is just about tired of hearing "wide-open Derby."

That's an understandable reaction from the trainer of the morning-line favorite, but the underwhelming confidence Harlan's Holiday has received from oddsmakers and bettors alleges it might be a (catch-phrase omitted) when 19 horses contest the 128th Kentucky Derby today at Churchill Downs.

"They say that every year," McPeek said. "Every year is supposed to be wide open because every January and February the crop of 3-year-olds is (supposedly) no good."

That's not completely true, but McPeek's consternation is understandable. Harlan's Holiday did everything asked of him this prep season by winning the Grade I Florida Derby and Blue Grass Stakes, but has not generated steamroller figures or publicity like Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000 or Point Given last year. And Point Given picked the Derby for the worst race of his life, finishing fifth to Monarchos. The last Derby contender to win the Florida Derby and Blue Grass was Spectacular Bid in 1979. He went off as a 3-5 favorite. Forward Pass won both in 1968 and was a $2.20 favorite. Harlan's Holiday finished Friday at 5-1, co-favorite with Saarland, winless as a 3-year-old.

It should hearten McPeek that Spectacular Bid and Forward Pass won the Kentucky Derby, but questions will linger because Harlan's Holiday's speed figures have worsened over his past two races at longer distances.

Came Home, the second favorite, is dogged by similar questions, though he has won six times in seven races, including a 21/4-length win in the Santa Anita Derby. The main concerns are his breeding and if 11/4 miles will be too far.

"Obviously, the question for everyone is distance," jockey Chris McCarron said. "I couldn't answer if he could do a mile and an eighth until he went out and did it. Three months ago I didn't think he was any better than a miler, but he's done everything to prove us wrong. And until this colt shows he can't get it, I'm not going to knock him."

Essence of Dubai has mastered 1 1/4 miles in winning the UAE Derby, but excitement is tempered by Godolphin's futile past attempts to win the sport's most coveted race and because he has not raced in the United States as a 3-year-old.

Trainer Saeed bin Suroor thinks this is where Godolphin breaks through.

"I think this is our best chance," he said. "I feel this is the best horse we have brought over here. Others had run the nine furlongs. This one has run 10."

Johannesburg won the Breeder's Cup Juvenile, but has been untested since returning to Ireland and will not set foot on the Churchill surface until today. He, like less-heralded stablemate Castle Gandolfo, has raced once as a 3-year-old.

[Times photo: Daniel Wallace] Exercise rider Rachel Dore, left, and groom Muqurad Khan hold UAE Derby winner Essence of Dubai after his morning run and hot bath.

Adding to the Irish mystery was trainer Aidan O'Brien's selection of the rail for Johannesburg.

"When we picked the front hole, obviously we knew we wouldn't be banging heads on the front end," said jockey Gary Stevens, who earned the mount when the colt's regular rider was suspended. "That's part of the strategy."

With Buddha's scratch, the first gate will be vacant, with Johannesburg moving to the No. 2 spot and posts 3-9 moving one gate to the right. Medaglio d'Oro, winner of the Grade II San Felipe, could become the first colt with four lifetime starts to win since Exterminator in 1918.

He should be just behind early speedsters Danthebluegrassman, War Emblem and Proud Citizen. Stalkers like Harlan's Holiday should settle into the third tier, with closers Saarland, Blue Burner and Essence of Dubai forming a late rush from the back.

"It wouldn't surprise me for us to be within three lengths early," McPeek said. "But you can't assume speed in a horse race. That's (jockey) Edgar (Prado's) job. He can handle it."

The Derby is not just about speed figures and pedigrees. It's also out hope, luck, sentimentality and My Old Kentucky Home.

Consider Jack and Laurie Wolf, proprietors of Starlight Stable. A native of Louisville, Jack Wolf has only owned thoroughbreds since he purchased 11 yearlings at a Fasig-Tipton sale in 2000. One, Harlan's Holiday, could help Wolf celebrate his 53rd birthday in the winner's circle.

Cynthia Phipps' lineage in thoroughbred racing is longer, just like her first Derby horse -- Saarland.

The son of Derby and Breeder's Cup Classic-winner Unbridled and Breeder's Cup Distaff champ Versailles Treaty could provide the missing achievement for a family of landmark racing heritage. Phipps' grandmother founded Wheatley Stables in the 1920s, and her father, the late Ogden Phipps, bred two Derby runners and raced another as owner.

The Phipps' private trainer, Shug McHaughey, is winless in five Derby tries.

Laffit Pincay Jr., the winningest jockey with more than 9,400 victories, will be the third-oldest (55) to enter the Derby. He's won once in 20 attempts. With Pincay and Eddie Delahoussaye, the race will have two 50-year-olds.

And for just one, satisfaction.

"Winning it would be a great thing," McPeek said. "It would help you realize a dream after working your butt off to get there."

© 2006 • All Rights Reserved • St. Petersburg Times
490 First Avenue South • St. Petersburg, FL 33701 • 727-893-8111

Contact the Times | Privacy Policy
Standard of Accuracy | Terms, Conditions & Copyright