Bay area housing market weathers jobs dip
By JUDY STARK, Times Homes Editor
© St. Petersburg Times
published May 18, 2002
And the fastest-selling subdivisions are . . .
American Metro/Study Corp., which tracks housing in 28 markets nationwide, has come up with a list of the top 10 communities in the Tampa Bay area and a similar list of the top 10 in the Sarasota-Manatee area, which I like to refer to as South Pinellas County.
Ranked by annual new-home starts, here's the Tampa Bay list:
Meadow Pointe (Pasco) ...................... 475
Trinity (Pasco) ......................................... 459
FishHawk Ranch (Hillsborough) ... 339
Somerset (Hillsborough) .................... 298
Lexington Oaks (Pasco) ..................... 288
Cross Creek (Hillsborough) .............. 250
West Meadows (Hillsborough) ........ 244
Westchase (Hillsborough) .................. 203
Bloomingdale (Hillsborough) .......... 180
South Pointe (SE Hillsborough)...... 172
* * *
Tony Polito, director of the Tampa region for American Metro/Study, says the supply of available lots should last fewer than 15 months, a drop of three months compared with a year ago and one of the lowest supply levels ever for this market. Now remember what happens when demand outpaces supply.
In a surprising turnaround, the Tampa Bay area economy had a net loss of 8,100 new jobs since March 2001. For months now, based on estimates, the experts have been saying that Tampa Bay led the nation in job growth, variously estimated at 3 to 5 percent. All those new jobs were thought to be the engine that was driving rip-roaring home sales.
What happened?
It's the "hard count," an actual count done annually by Florida and reported to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as as opposed to monthly estimates, which "were significantly unreliable this year," Polito says. The hard count "was not very kind to Central Florida."
"Job growth was estimated at 40,000, but the hard-count revision reported an actual net loss of 8,100 new jobs," he said. Most of that, though, was lost "through October of last year, and we have rebounded somewhat. We have grown 5,300 jobs since October." The terrorist attacks of Sept. 11 were the cause of some job losses in tourism and lodging, but the area also lost 1,600 jobs in food stores and 5,800 in manufacturing. "That took a little bit of the steam off," Polito said. "We weren't growing at quite the level we had been."
Still, he said, since March 2000 this area has added about 40,000 people to the workforce. "We're still strong, and that has sustained the housing pace." The recovery of new jobs and those low interest rates might have something to do with that.
Meanwhile, the top 10 communities in the Sarasota-Bradenton area, ranked by annual new home starts, are:
Lakewood Ranch (Manatee) .................. 554
Palmer Ranch (Sarasota) .......................... 290
Rotonda (Charlotte) .................................... 241
Pelican Pointe Golf & CC (Sarasota)... 223
Sabal Harbour (Manatee) ......................... 219
Tara Golf & Country Club (Manatee).. 200
Palm-Aire (Manatee) ................................... 182
Punta Gorda Isles (Charlotte) .................. 155
Waterlefe Golf & River Club (Manatee). 153
Rivendell (Sarasota) ...................................... 137
* * *
While the Tampa Bay area was losing new jobs, the Sarasota-Bradenton area was adding 6,100 new jobs since last March, for a growth rate of 2.2 percent (compared with the national growth rate of around 0, Polito said). That gives it a ranking of 14th among 327 Metropolitan Statistical Areas; Tampa Bay ranks 151.
The area has a supply of lots that should last just under 43 months, down by slightly more than 13 months from last year. The market is skewed by Charlotte County, which has a supply of developed lots that is estimated to last almost 141/2 years. Those are old General Development lots that were put in the ground back in the 1970s but just never took off, Polito said.
"It looks skewed because it's a 14-year supply, but back at the beginning of the '90s it was a 100-year supply," he said.
The gift that keeps on . . .
Soon the traditional wedding season will be upon us. As you shop for gifts, ponder these statistics from the International Housewares Association.
Just 1 percent of U.S. households bought bread boxes last year, and only 2 percent bought ice buckets and spice racks. Households that purchased these items, the association reports, "will not be back in the market for another bread box, spice rack or ice bucket for over 20 years." They're the gifts that never die.
So just think: If those items are your gift selections for the happy couple, they're going to be living with them for a long, long time -- right up to their silver anniversary, when you can give them a new ice bucket or spice rack.
Shopping tip: Practically every American household owns at least one flashlight, and those that already own one typically buy a new flashlight every five years. Twenty-one percent of U.S. households plan to purchase at least one flashlight within the next year.
And here, go ahead and make someone's day and give the gift of their dreams: Sixteen percent of U.S. households will "definitely" or "probably" purchase a spatula within the next year.
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