Be ready ... our luck will run out eventually

Dick Fletcher, Chief Meteorologist, 10 News

Our luck can't last forever.

The past seven years have seen more tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean than any seven consecutive years on record. Hurricane expert Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University says it's likely that this trend will continue through the early decades of this century.

Why is that?

Its tied to a cycle of heating in the Atlantic that normally lasts 25 to 50 years. Since 1995, we have had 94 named storms. Of those, 58 were strong enough to be hurricanes, and 27 were intense, Category 3, 4 or 5 storms.

Because 85 percent of all the damage is done by intense hurricanes, Dr. Gray says we have been extremely lucky that only three of the major storms made landfall in the past seven years.

Historically one of every three major storms strikes land. With the luck we've had recently, eight out of every nine intense storms have recurved and turned away from the United States. This is the kind of luck that is going to run out, sooner or later.

This is forecast to be another above normal hurricane season. Statistically, the more storms that take place in any year, the more landfalls there are likely to be.

Before entering into this more active period, we had below normal tropical activity from 1970 through 1994. Millions of new residents have moved to coastlines throughout the eastern United States. The population growth, coupled with increased wealth, and the likelihood of more hurricanes that make landfall, leads Dr. Gray to warn us that we will see 10 times the damage from hurricanes during the next 35 years, compared to the past three and a half decades.

Will this be the year our luck runs out? Frankly I don't know, and Dr. Gray admits he doesn't know for sure either. But you can't take the chance by not being prepared.

That's why we have prepared this guide for you. Everything you need to know to get ready for a hurricane, dealing with the storm and afterward is here. Save this guide now and use it for this hurricane season. That way you'll be ready no matter what comes our way.

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