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It's time to heed the lessons of Floyd, Allison
[AP photo: 1999]
Residents of Hobucken, N.C., examine their damaged community center after Hurricane Floyd struck the state in 1999. The storm caused disastrous flooding, and 56 people were killed in the United States. |
By DAVID BALLINGRUD, Times Staff Writer
© St. Petersburg Times
published May 26, 2002
You are reading this story, and that's a good start.
It means that you know that it's time once again to play (whether you want to or not) the real Florida lottery.
Florida's six-month hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through November -- from the beginning of summer to the beginning of the Christmas holiday season.
So it's time now to think through your plans. What will you do if a storm approaches? Do you have the supplies you might need? Should you leave your home? Where will you go if you do?
In every county in Florida the evacuation scenario is somewhat different, tailored to the geographics and demographics. So carefully check your own scenario.
In Pinellas County, for example, the population of permanent residents and visitors at any given time is pegged at about 1-million people. About half of those live high enough above sea level to avoid evacuation even in the worst of storms, according to Gary Vickers, senior coordinator for Pinellas County Emergency Management.
Nevertheless, he said, a half-million people is still way too many to jam into cars and crowded roadways in an attempt to escape a storm. Hurricane Floyd taught that painful lesson.
In September 1999, Floyd marked a turning point in the way public officials plan for storms, Vickers said. It struck near Cape Fear, N.C., then headed north to New England. Along the way it dropped 15 to 20 inches of rain on already saturated ground, and the result was disastrous flooding. Fifty-six deaths in the United States and another in the Bahamas made Floyd the deadliest hurricane since Agnes in 1972.
The flooding deaths were tragic, but what many people will remember is the evacuation headache that resulted when 3-million people along the East Coast tried to run from the storm. There were vast traffic snarls from Florida to the Carolinas, trapping the very young, the ill and the elderly in cars and summer heat for hour upon maddening hour.
"Floyd was a pivotal moment for the emergency management community," Vickers said. "We realized that if people actually do perceive a threat, they will evacuate. ... It's a natural human response."
But too many people on the road freezes an evacuation, so now emergency planners tell people to "stay if it's safe," Vickers said. "It sure doesn't make any sense to try to drive from coastal areas to Orlando."
Instead, Vickers suggests that people who live in evacuation zones visit a friend or relative on higher ground if evacuation becomes necessary. In Pinellas County this is called the "Host Home" program, and information on how it works can be obtained by calling 464-3800, or by visiting the county's Web site at www.pinellascounty.org/ema. For information on what is recommended for your area, call your county emergency management office.
The 2001 hurricane season was a busy one. There were 15 named storms, and nine of those became hurricanes. Of the nine hurricanes, four were classified as major, intense storms. (The corresponding long-term averages are 10, 6 and 2).
Last year, two major hurricanes, Iris and Michelle, caused 48 deaths around the Caribbean, but for the second straight year no hurricanes made landfall on the U.S. shoreline. Two of the three tropical storms that hit the United States were nearly hurricane strength, however, and notable in that group was Allison.
Allison's heavy rains produced catastrophic flooding over portions of the upper Texas coastal area, and significant flooding along the remainder of its track. Forty-one people died, and damage estimates soared.
The American Insurance Group reported an insured property loss estimate of $1.22-billion. The National Hurricane Center generally doubles the insured loss, producing an estimated damage figure of $2.44-billion.
That's not the end of it, though. Damage estimates by the Federal Emergency Management Agency and other state emergency management agencies are near $5-billion, with approximately $4.8-billion in the Houston metropolitan area alone.
This year, the experts are predicting another busy season, although the Pacific Ocean phenomenon called El Nino may yet inhibit the formation of Atlantic storms.
El Nino conditions occur once water temperatures have warmed enough to change cloud and rainfall patterns in the Pacific. This in turn affects high altitude winds, which disrupt the development of storms journeying across the Atlantic toward Florida.
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