Where is terror worst? Colombia

MIAMI -- It is hard not to be swept up by the wave of enthusiasm in Colombia over Sunday's election of a new president, Alvaro Uribe.

To many Colombians, Uribe is a breath of fresh air.

Running on an independent ticket, he broke the decadeslong stranglehold of the two main political parties. Uribe won an unprecedented 53 percent of the vote, avoiding the need for a runoff against his nearest rival, who trailed by more than 20 points. In South Florida, where some 27,000 of the area's estimated 100,000 Colombian expatriates were registered to vote, Uribe won about 95 percent of the vote.

There's no question the 49-year-old, yoga-practicing workaholic means business. But -- and it's a big but -- the prospects for the near future are not good.

To understand what Uribe and Colombians in general are up against, consider the following incidents during the election campaign:

One presidential candidate, Ingrid Betancourt, was kidnapped Feb. 23 and has not been seen or heard from since.

Last month rebels kidnapped a dozen city councilors in Cali, the country's third-largest city, after brazenly walking into a government building disguised as government troops.

This month 119 people died when rebels bombed a church in the remote village of Bojaya.

As many as 100 warring guerrillas and paramilitary fighters are believed to have died in an eight-hour pitched battle in another remote area. Local officials found the corpses of 48 paramilitaries spread over an area the size of two football fields. The guerrillas reportedly carried their dead away with them.

Last week police and soldiers battled rebels in the streets of Medellin, the country's second-largest city. Nine people died, including two children. Last month rebels kidnapped the governor of Antioquia state during a peace march.

So, it came as no surprise Sunday that only 43 percent of voters cast their ballots due to widespread voter intimidation by guerrillas and paramilitaries.

In short, Colombia knows violence like nowhere else on the planet.

According to the State Department's annual report on terrorism published last week, Colombia leads the world by a stunning margin in almost all categories of violence. The Middle East trails far behind. Most of the victims are Colombians, including almost all the 3,500 people who died in political violence in Colombia last year, as well as the vast majority of the 2,800 people who were kidnapped.

But Colombia also features prominently in a worldwide chart of anti-U.S. attacks. Of the 219 attacks reported, 191 of them took place in Colombia, mostly directed at U.S.-owned oil companies and pipelines.

Colombians are not exaggerating when they tell their American friends that the terrorist threat in the United States is minimal compared to what they have been living through for the last 40 years. They would gladly swap our current state of alert for their own permanent state of fear.

In his victory speech, Uribe held out an olive branch to the country's illegal armed groups, saying he would seek international mediation to end the conflict.

But the prospects for peace remain bleak.

Last-minute intervention by the United Nations and several foreign embassies failed to save two-year-old peace talks when they broke down in February. Analysts say the United Nations is unlikely to accept deeper involvement until the guerrillas show serious signs of peaceful intent.

Uribe also set tough conditions before reopening talks, sure to be rejected by the guerrillas. They include a halt to all "terrorist" actions, including kidnapping, and a nationwide cease-fire.

There was no immediate response from the 18,000-strong Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC. They may have been too busy Monday celebrating their 38th anniversary.

Uribe promises to take the war to the guerrillas, doubling military spending and calling for greater U.S. assistance.

His mention of international mediation is a smokescreen, analysts say.

"It's an olive branch for internal and international consumption," said Bruce Bagley, a leading U.S. scholar and Colombian government consultant. "It's a smart gesture but behind it all is Uribe's iron fist."

Neither do the FARC appear to be in the mood to make political concessions. They recently proposed reopening talks if the government granted them a safe haven in the country's largest drug-producing province. Talk about putting the wolf in charge of the henhouse.

Uribe and the FARC appear destined for a bloody test of will. Only after that will a new peace process be born.

© 2006 • All Rights Reserved • St. Petersburg Times
490 First Avenue South • St. Petersburg, FL 33701 • 727-893-8111

Contact the Times | Privacy Policy
Standard of Accuracy | Terms, Conditions & Copyright