Many fear 'loya jirga' vote is already a done deal

KABUL, Afghanistan -- A long-awaited national assembly convened Tuesday to choose a new government, but the day's events were so scripted to favor Hamid Karzai, chairman of the current interim government, that his continuation in power seemed almost a foregone conclusion.

Mohammed Zahir Shah, the elderly former king whom some Afghans would like to see returned to power, opened the assembly, called a loya jirga, by strongly endorsing Karzai for the second time in two days. At the same time, two powerful figures -- one a member of Karzai's Cabinet, the other a former Afghan president -- also made way for him to retain leadership.

The endorsements, partly the result of American pressure on key figures to guarantee a smooth political transition, appeared to leave Karzai in such a strong position that the loya jirga, a gathering of 1,700 mostly elected delegates from across the country, could become little more than a rubber stamp.

The loya jirga's goal is to create a transitional government that would hold power for 18 months while preparing to hold elections in a country that has known nothing but chaos and warfare for more than two decades. Scheduled to run through the end of the week, the traditional assembly was envisioned as a step toward bringing broad-based, representative government to Afghanistan after U.S. and allied troops and Afghan militias ousted the repressive Taliban Islamic movement late last year.

Karzai, 44, in traditional robe and turban, held center stage during most of Tuesday's 90-minute opening session, making several speeches after receiving Zahir Shah's endorsement. His command of the assembly was so complete that loya jirga officials and some media agencies mistakenly reported he had been chosen Tuesday as the sole candidate for Afghan leadership -- or had actually been elected.

Late Tuesday night, Foreign Minister Abdullah hastily called a news conference to clarify that Karzai hadn't yet been officially nominated and that today's loya jirga session would include nomination, debate and voting on any and all proposed candidates for the Afghan leadership.

Omar Samad, the Foreign Ministry spokesman, said that when loya jirga delegates had applauded the former king's speech supporting Karzai, it meant they were approving his candidacy but didn't constitute a formal nomination. "We expect other candidates to emerge," Samad said. "We don't expect it to be a one-man show."

But despite official efforts to put a democratic gloss on the proceedings, some critics, including both foreign observers and Afghan delegates, complained that the high-level agreements struck on Karzai's candidacy could effectively render moot the role of the assembly, the first democratic exercise Afghanistan has attempted in decades.

"This is not a democracy. This is a rubber stamp," declared Seema Samar, the current minister of women's affairs and a delegate to the assembly. "Everything has been decided ahead by the powerful ones," she said, noting that numerous Afghan former militia leaders had taken part in the dealmaking.

Alex Thier, an American analyst from the nonprofit International Crisis Group, spent Tuesday meeting with loya jirga delegates in their heavily guarded compound and said some were angry and dismayed at the turn of events.

"There is a risk now that there will be no real debate or decision-making at the loya jirga at all, just up or down votes," Thier said. "People worked hard to get elected and make the process go well, but now they feel they are being presented with a fait accompli."

The rapid momentum of developments favoring Karzai in the last 48 hours, coupled with the strong if somewhat clumsy display of American support for him, suggest that even a grass-roots revolt among loya jirga delegates -- including a threatened boycott by supporters of the former king -- would probably fail.

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