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The deaths of 10 Pakistani soldiers fighting al-Qaida signal a shift in the role of Pakistan.
©Washington Post
June 27, 2002
WASHINGTON -- The deaths of 10 Pakistani troops in a firefight Wednesday with al-Qaida is the most telling sign yet that the war in Afghanistan has expanded eastward into Pakistan, a development that could have far-reaching consequences for the government of President Pervez Musharraf.
The broadening of the war, which brought Pakistan's first known military deaths in the U.S.-led war against terrorism, effectively raises the stakes for all sides in the conflict.
For al-Qaida, it means that, after two months of pressure, the United States has persuaded Pakistan's military to attack members of the terrorist network that have taken refuge across the border. For Musharraf, it means that his troops have now been killed by al-Qaida, which enjoys some sympathy in Pakistan, especially in the border region. And for the United States, it means that Pakistan, the only Muslim country to possess nuclear weapons, is now perhaps more important than Afghanistan as a front in the war on terrorism.
"This has probably moved Musharraf up a notch or two on al-Qaida's most wanted list," said Karl Inderfurth, a former assistant secretary of state for South Asian affairs. Having Pakistanis in combat with al-Qaida, he added, "is Musharraf's worst nightmare."
U.S. forces weren't directly involved in the fight, but some were nearby, Pakistani officials said. The United States has mounted an extensive operation in the Pakistani border areas led by CIA operatives, but also including some military personnel temporarily transferred to CIA control, as well as some Special Forces teams that remain under military command. Also, in response to a request from Pakistan, U.S. forces in Afghanistan went on alert to launch a supporting mission, but ultimately weren't called upon, Air Force Gen. Richard Myers, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said at a Pentagon news conference.
"We appreciate the Pakistan army's efforts to locate the al-Qaida," Myers said.
The firefight occurred after Pakistani forces, tipped off by U.S. intelligence, staged a nighttime raid on an al-Qaida hideout in the remote village of Wana near the border with Afghanistan. In the four-hour gunbattle, 10 Pakistani soldiers and at least two al-Qaida militants were killed.
A Pakistani military statement said several hundred Pakistani soldiers are pursuing foreign fighters who escaped "with increased vigor." The statement said one al-Qaida fighter, reportedly a Chechen, was taken prisoner. There was no estimate on the total number of al-Qaida militants thought to be in the area or how many escaped during the gun fight.
The expansion of the war into Pakistan grew increasingly likely as two U.S.-led offensives -- in the Tora Bora mountains last winter and in the Shahikot valley this spring -- pushed hundreds of al-Qaida fighters eastward across the Afghan-Pakistani border.
In the view of U.S. officials, the outbreak of combat against al-Qaida in Pakistan is beneficial because it means the terrorist network does not have a sanctuary there, even in the remote region known as the tribal areas along the border, where the Pakistani government exercises little control. Also, officials believe that any time al-Qaida fighters spend defending themselves is time they can't devote to planning new attacks.
Having made those calculations, U.S. officials began in early May to push Pakistan to launch the attacks on concentrations of al-Qaida that U.S. intelligence was detecting in the border region. In mid May, a senior official singled out the town of Wana, the location of Wednesday's firefight, as the refuge of hundreds of al-Qaida fighters.
One bright light for Musharraf is that the two al-Qaida fighters killed in the firefight appear to be of Chechen origin, Inderfurth said. "I think Musharraf is probably breathing a sigh of relief that they weren't Pakistanis or Afghans," he said. Their apparent origin outside Pakistan, and also from outside the ethnic Pashtuns who dominate the population on both sides of the border, makes it easier to blame the violence on foreigners, Inderfurth noted.
But the incident also may foreshadow a extended spell of violence inside Pakistan, several experts said.
"For several years, there has been a growing challenge by militant groups to the Pakistani government, and now it has erupted into the open," said Teresita Schaffer, director of South Asia studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank. She predicted that, even in the best case scenario, Pakistan faces several years of violence before its government can prevail over Islamic extremist groups sympathetic to Afghanistan's ousted Taliban government and to al-Qaida.
But not all experts were so pessimistic. Pakistan has proven more resilient than sometimes predicted by Westerners, noted one. "There are always Cassandras out there saying Pakistan is going to explode," said Gib Lanpher, a former State Department official for South Asian affairs. "But it hasn't."