Class size amendments carry hefty price tag

Thanks to a new law, for the first time, economists are calculating the costs of proposed citizen initiatives. Some say it's politics as usual.

By ALISA ULFERTS, Times Staff Writer
© St. Petersburg Times
published June 28, 2002

TALLAHASSEE -- A citizen initiative to reduce class sizes would cost up to $27.5-billion for the first seven years and $2.5-billion every year after that, state economists agreed Thursday.

That's more than double previous estimates.

Another proposal, to expand voluntary pre-kindergarten to every 4-year-old would cost $425-million to $650-million, economists estimated.

A third amendment, aimed at protecting pregnant pigs, would cost nothing, the economists said.

It is the first time state economists have calculated the cost of proposed constitutional amendments and is the result of a bill passed by the Legislature this year and signed into law by Gov. Jeb Bush.

The cost of a fourth amendment, to restore statewide university governance board, could not be calculated, the economists said.

None of the measures have been certified for the Nov. 5 ballot. Supporters are still collecting required petitions.

Organizers of the class size and pre-K amendments have sued the state over the new law, claiming it unjustly targets citizen initiatives while letting legislative proposals go to the ballot without fiscal scrutiny.

"Politics are obvious here," said Sen. Kendrick Meek, a Miami Democrat and chief supporter of the class-size amendment. The economists work for politicians, like Gov. Jeb Bush, who want the amendment to fail, Meek said. "It puts it out there how unfair this process is and will continue to be."

The measure would require no more than 18 students per class in grades K-3, 22 students in grades 4-8 and 25 students in high school classrooms. The mandate would be phased in by 2010, and before Thursday the highest estimate anyone had seen was $12-billion. The economists pegged the lowest estimate at $20-billion.

Opinion polls have shown wide support for the idea, though the surveys have not included possible costs.

State economists acknowledged that they were largely playing guessing games in trying to predict costs when they don't know what laws the Legislature might pass to implement the amendments.

"What we have on the table now is everybody's entry into the sweepstakes," said Ed Montanaro, director of the state Office of Economic and Demographic Research.

The new law arose during a special session lawmakers held this spring. The issue has a political undercurrent: The Republican-led Legislature passed the new law requested by the Republican governor, yet most proposed citizen initiatives are backed by Democrats.

The law requires the State Revenue Estimating Conference, which normally calculates how much money will be raised for state government, to determine the cost of proposed citizen initiatives. Thursday's meeting was the first time the group had gathered to study the amendments.

Economists spent hours debating the myriad factors in an amendment's costs: additional teachers salaries, new buildings, land costs, portable classroom rentals. One estimate suggested that portables could comprise as much as 25 percent of all classroom space if the amendment passes. The figure now is about 12 percent.

Backers of an amendment to resurrect a separate university governing board recruited former Florida university system Chancellor Charlie Reed to write a letter to the state.

"The practice of allowing public universities to manage themselves independently rather than through a centralized system is certain to create significant additional costs for the state," Reed wrote.

Backers of the initiative to break higher education away from the state Board of Education, led by U.S. Democratic Sen. Bob Graham, say the current system is inefficient and creates infighting among universities.

State economists declined to weigh in on that matter, agreeing only to caution voters that "The fiscal impact of this measure, if any, cannot be resonably determined at this time."

Economists came to the same conclusion about an amendment that would require the state to offer treatment for certain drug offenders, though supporters have dropped their campaign for now.

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