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Class size initiative may be biggest foe for Bush
© St. Petersburg Times Gov. Jeb Bush's toughest opponent this fall may not be Janet Reno or Bill McBride. Look deeper. If it gets on the ballot, the Amendment to Reduce Class Size could wreak havoc with Bush's future. Depending on who's talking, it's proof of widespread fury over schools or a fiscal time bomb waiting to explode. Some Bush allies who make a living lobbying state government want to find a way to make sure class size never gets a place in the state Constitution. Polls show overwhelming support for it, despite a staggering price tag that seems to get bigger every day. Last week it was $12-billion over eight years. Now, state revenue experts, most of whom work for Bush or the Legislature, say it's up to $27.5-billion. That number is a political weapon to be used in TV ads this fall -- and that's where John Thrasher comes in. The former House speaker, now an influential lobbyist for a lot of pro-Republican clients, wants to save Florida voters from themselves. A conference call with Thrasher on Thursday included Associated Industries president Jon Shebel, lobbyist Charlie Dudley and public relations consultant Cory Tilley. In their summer of discontent, they have an idea: Join hands and checkbooks with every interest group that opposes any amendment and buy TV time urging Floridians to vote against every amendment in November. That includes smoke-free restaurants, universal prekindergarten education, U.S. Sen. Bob Graham's proposal to reinstate the Board of Regents, and pregnant pigs protection. Call it "Just Say No." "It's a group of folks who realize that Floridians should really be concerned about the enormous price tag attached to these ballot initiatives," says Tilley, owner of Core Message, who also advises Bush's campaign. "There's a concern here that Floridians will not know the truth. There needs to be an effort to educate Floridians." Education: It's the No. 1 issue, right? As speaker, Thrasher had no trouble finding millions for a medical school at his alma mater, Florida State University, while classrooms swelled. Voters, he says, should lay off amending the Constitution. "The Florida Legislature is not the perfect place, but it's still the place to go," he said. "Once you start putting stuff in the Constitution, you have got to live with it, and live with the consequences." The class size champion, Sen. Kendrick Meek, D-Miami, said his effort is a plea for help from frustrated parents everywhere, even, he says, "Republican men in Pensacola," the demographic supposedly least likely to embrace anything that sounds like more taxes. "It's so clear for people to see that the only way it will ever happen is for them to put it in the Constitution, because these folks won't," Meek said of Bush and lawmakers. But something isn't right here. If you're like most voters, based on polls and election results, you have elected a lot of Republicans and are mostly happy with Bush's record and plan to re-elect him. You also plan to force Bush and lawmakers to spend billions to shrink classes by raising taxes, cutting programs or, least likely of all, wiping out tax breaks. There's no other way. Which brings us to the real reason business lobbyists want to kill the class size amendment. What worries business lobbyists is that the cost of these initiatives could bust budgets and seize the agenda of Bush and the next Legislature. Imagine them forced to impose the biggest tax increase in Florida history, because voters demanded it. They're worried, and voters should be, too, once they know that the price of venting their frustration with crowded schools could be very high indeed. -- Steve Bousquet is deputy chief of the Times' Tallahassee bureau.
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Times columns today Steve Bousquet Bill Varian and David Karp |
