Spot check

Editor's note: To help voters evaluate political ads, Times reporters review and analyze content.

By ADAM C. SMITH, Times Political Editor
© St. Petersburg Times
published July 18, 2002

OFFICE: Governor

CANDIDATE: Gov. Jeb Bush, Republican

OPPONENTS: Democrats Daryl Jones, Bill McBride, Janet Reno

SPONSOR OF AD: Republican Party of Florida

RUNS: Various markets, including Tampa Bay

THE AD: With stern-sounding background music punctuated by clanging prison cell doors, Manatee County Sheriff Charlie Wells speaks into the camera, and the ad shows Bush walking and talking with what appear to be sheriff's deputies. Says Wells:

"So how is Jeb Bush doing on crime? Ask the criminals. Early release is gone. Felons now serve at least 85 percent of their sentences. Gun crime, down 24 percent. 10-20-Life worked. Drug use is down 31 percent since 1998, while funding for treatment and prevention is up 58 percent. Let me tell you about Jeb Bush. He's the governor of Florida law enforcement has been waiting for. Let's keep him on the job."

ANALYSIS: Pollsters asking Florida voters their top concerns are hearing the same thing lately: education, education, education. Crime is no longer a top worry, in large part because crime is down nationwide. But Republicans have always been seen as stronger on crime than Democrats, and this 30-second ad seeks to raise the profile of an issue Republicans own.

Bush does have a strong relationship with law enforcement, and this year he has endorsements from Florida's major police unions. The statewide crime rate has indeed fallen during Bush's first term, though it was dropping before he took office. Some analysts see that as much a function of the economy as anything else. In some areas of the state, including much of Tampa Bay, crime actually rose slightly in 2001. Bush isn't the only candidate taking credit for lower crime rates. His leading Democratic challenger, Reno, boasts that crime fell to its lowest level in 27 years during her eight years as U.S. attorney general.

The ad touts tougher prison sentences, although the law requiring felons to serve 85 percent of their sentences took effect well before Bush became governor. Republican lawmakers (and Sheriff Wells) pushed it, and then-Gov. Lawton Chiles let it become law without his signature. The statistics cited appear valid. (Declining drug use comes from a U.S. Department of Health and Human Services survey.) Bush has often cited the importance of drug treatment, although during the state's budget crunch earlier this year he cut $13-million in funding for drug treatment programs in prison. He later restored nearly $9-million.

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