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With a week before the primary election, polls bolster McBride's campaign. Reno, though, thinks a large voter turnout is her key to victory.
By ADAM C. SMITH and STEVE BOUSQUET
© St. Petersburg Times, published September 3, 2002
TAMPA -- Democrats Bill McBride and Janet Reno head into the final week of the primary campaign today with McBride riding a wave of momentum and Reno pushing for heavy voter turnout to avoid an upset.
As the Democrats worked Labor Day crowds across Tampa Bay, a new poll offered more good news for McBride.
In a general election matchup, it found McBride and Republican Gov. Jeb Bush virtually tied, with Bush at 48 percent and McBride at 47 percent. Bush led Reno in the poll, 55 percent to 39 percent.
"This explains why Bush is attacking McBride so consist-ently and erroneously," McBride campaign spokesman Alan Stonecipher said Monday. "The message to Democrats is clear. If you want to beat Jeb Bush, vote McBride. That's the only way it's going to happen."
The poll of 800 likely general election voters was conducted Aug. 26-28 for a Democrat running for a Cabinet seat by Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates of California.
Officials with the Reno and Bush campaigns questioned the reliability of the new poll numbers. Todd Harris, spokesman for the Bush campaign, said a business group last week conducted a poll that showed McBride "nowhere near" Bush.
This week, the spotlight will remain on the Democratic primary.
A St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald poll published Sunday showed a virtual tie in the Democratic primary, with Reno leading McBride by 40 percent to 38 percent.
The race has shifted dramatically with the newspaper polls indicating a close race. McBride is so confident about winning the primary that he spent part of Labor Day huddled with advisers and discussing potential running mates. This is the first year that candidates for governor could wait to choose running mates until after the primary.
Among the names circulating as potential McBride running mates: Miami-Dade Mayor Alex Penelas; former U.S. Rep. and Vietnam Ambassador Pete Peterson of North Florida; former state education commissioner and Tampa state Sen. Betty Castor; Carol Browner, a South Florida native who was President Bill Clinton's EPA administrator; and state Sen. Daryl Jones, who's running a distant third in the Democratic primary for governor.
While the McBride camp discussed running mates, Reno spent Monday answering questions about how she will withstand McBride's surge. She is spending the final days driving her red pickup throughout the state and courting seniors and African-Americans, who tend to favor her over McBride.
"The governor is very vulnerable, but we have to get past Sept. 10th first," she told about 100 enthusiastic supporters at her new St. Petersburg campaign office on First Avenue N. "You've got to identify everybody that is going to vote for Janet Reno, and you've got to make sure they get to the polls to vote. That is our mission."
Monday night, the right-handed former U.S. attorney general threw out the first pitch at the Women's World Series game at Florida Power Park in St. Petersburg.
McBride has momentum on his side, but Reno has core groups of supporters who could make the difference. She strongly leads McBride in South Florida and among seniors who tend to vote heavily in primaries.
"I don't get shook easily," she said, brushing off questions about McBride erasing her lead. "It's going to depend on turnout, and I don't think that polls can estimate turnout."
Like Reno, McBride is working to increase his support among black voters. Today in Jacksonville, he will meet with members of an ironworkers' union local and collect an endorsement from U.S. Rep. Corrine Brown, D-Jacksonville, one of the state's three African-American members of Congress. McBride is featuring his endorsement from another black member of Congress, U.S. Rep. Alcee Hastings of Fort Lauderdale, in campaign materials in South Florida.
Jones, who is black, also has significant support from black voters. How he fares among those voters could decide a close race between Reno and McBride.
On Monday, Reno illustrated the organizational shortcomings of her campaign. At rallies at Lowry Park Zoo and Al Lopez Park in Tampa, fewer than two dozen supporters showed up, having received little notice from the campaign.
Reno still showed off her star power, though, as she approached picnickers and zoo visitors in Tampa, and shoppers at the Pier in St. Petersburg.
"Janet Reno! Get me a picture of Janet Reno and my baby," shouted Joeann Wims of Gainesville, attending a family reunion. "I've got to show everybody."
In Plant City, signs of Bill McBride's momentum were everywhere as he worked a crowd of more than 1,000 union members at Lupton's Boggy Bottom barbecue ranch.
When McBride came to the same event a year ago, he recalled, he set up a booth out front and drew polite interest. This time he found hundreds of people wearing McBride T-shirts and stickers, calling his name and asking for pictures or autographs from the candidate wearing a "Veterans for McBride" T-shirt.
Five TV cameras followed McBride around a pavilion, making his only Labor Day appearance a windfall of free media exposure.
"We've got to win next Tuesday and then we've got to win Nov. 5. How can I lose with all you people helping me?" McBride said in a short but rousing speech.
McBride spent the afternoon at his home on Lake Thonotosassa where he met with Fran Davin, his political director, and talked about the search for a running mate who could help him in South Florida and with swing voters along the I-4 corridor in Central Florida. McBride said he wants to announce the selection as soon as possible after the Sept. 10 primary to try to keep his momentum going.
Early speculation has centered on Penelas, the telegenic and ambitious mayor of Miami-Dade County and a Cuban-American.
"Alex Penelas is a good friend of mine but I've got a lot of good friends," McBride said. "I want to find somebody who I feel very comfortable with. I don't want to do a political marriage where we don't see eye-to-eye on things. If you try to be too clever, what's really important here is somebody who will want to implement my plans for education, and that we're on the same wavelength."
The state's third black member of Congress, U.S. Rep. Carrie Meek of Miami, who is retiring, has not endorsed McBride. But she had talks with him a few weeks ago about the possibility of being a running mate. No offer was made.
Meanwhile, Bush will make a campaign swing to Panama City and Pensacola today, two places where Democrats think McBride, a decorated Vietnam veteran, can contest the Republicans' popularity among a large retired military population.
The GOP continues to air commercials accusing McBride of cutting health benefits to workers in order to boost partners' income at his former law firm, Holland & Knight. McBride's campaign called the ad "erroneous" and said the only increase in health insurance costs was a $15 increase in the monthly premium for employees' dependents.
"I think McBride has a pretty good shot at winning the primary," said Harris of the Bush campaign, "and the more we find out about his record at Holland & Knight, the more we look forward to running against him."
McBride's surge has stirred a buzz in the media and in national Democratic circles.
The campaign is adding a second plane to transport reporters following McBride, and calls of interest are growing from national news organizations. Big national Democratic donors are paying close attention, too.
Mitchell Berger, finance chairman of the Florida Democratic Party, said the tight primary is the "first sign of life" in his party in a long time.
"The closeness of the election has gotten the attention of the national Democratic network," Berger said. "The truth is, they are certainly interested in a McBride win, but if Reno sustains McBride and learns from it we may still be able to pick up some commitments. For six months there's been no life, and all of a sudden, there's life in the Democratic Party."
-- Times staff writer Wes Allison contributed to this report.