His foes say Bush may be beatable

Florida's Democrats are energized by their close primary campaign for governor and are likely to head into the November election unified.

By ADAM C. SMITH, Times Political Editor
© St. Petersburg Times
published September 8, 2002

Not for 12 years have Florida Democrats had a gubernatorial primary even remotely as competitive as the one they face Tuesday.

Democrats, suddenly looking at a dead heat race between Tampa lawyer Bill McBride and former U.S. Attorney General Janet Reno, are fired up. Party leaders are saying what few of them believed for most of this year -- that they might beat Jeb Bush in November.

But the hurdles before them are enormous: a popular incumbent governor who has vastly more campaign money and the backing of a White House determined to keep the president's brother in the Governor's Mansion.

America's biggest swing state has 9.1-million registered voters, nearly 43 percent of them Democrats, 39 percent Republicans, and 16 percent with no party affiliation. With McBride, Reno and state state Sen. Daryl Jones showing few philosophical differences, the choice for many Democrats boils down to a simple question.

Who has the best shot at unseating the governor?

Reno contends the way to beat Bush is to mobilize the Democratic base as Al Gore did in Florida. As President Clinton's attorney general, beloved in her home base of South Florida's Democratic strongholds, she says she's the best candidate to do that.

McBride argues that as a decorated Vietnam veteran and business leader, he's the candidate to attract enough independent and swing voters to win back the Governor's Mansion.

Most polls show Bush comfortably leading either candidate, but a late August Mason-Dixon Polling and Research survey found McBride faring better. Bush led Reno by 19 points and McBride by 12 points.

Four years ago, Bush won the Governor's Mansion with 14 percent of Democratic voters. The outcome Tuesday could determine how many Democrats he peels off this time.

A recent St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald poll found one in three Democrats backing McBride would consider voting for Bush if McBride loses the primary. Only 16 percent of Reno supporters would consider Bush if she loses.

Whoever wins, Democrats enter the general election largely unified and energized by a suddenly tight race that few expected even a month ago.

"When primaries work, they get everybody excited, especially when they haven't been ugly primaries, which this one hasn't been," said Mitchell Berger, finance chairman for the state Democratic Party.

Indeed, this has been about as genteel as it gets in a close election.

The candidates essentially ran parallel campaigns, barely acknowledging one another. Their focus has been on Bush, whom they call divisive and more interested in giving corporate tax breaks than investing in schools and social services.

McBride has had an almost single-minded focus on education, promising an extra $1-billion in public school spending financed largely by a 50-cents-a-pack tax on cigarettes. He emphasizes consensus building and the need for more investment in Florida instead of Bush's record of "cutting, cutting, cutting."

Reno, too, talks about education and, like McBride, criticizes Bush for using standardized tests to grade schools. But Reno's platform is broader, talking about prescription drugs for the elderly and environmental issues. She was the first to criticize Bush's handling of problems at the state's child welfare agency, an issue McBride has taken up, too.

Jones, meanwhile, talks with great specificity about a broad range of issues, from transportation to schools to international trade. He's the only Democratic candidate who rules out raising taxes, though he has said he would consider eliminating some sales tax exemptions.

The only attacks on the Democrats came from Bush and the state GOP, who mounted an unprecedent TV campaign aimed at influencing the Democratic primary. They began by attacking Reno and McBride but quickly focused on McBride with TV ads suggesting he recklessly managed his law firm and contributed to layoffs.

Those anti-McBride ads initially elevated the little-known Tampa lawyer's profile and convinced many Democrats that Bush would much prefer to face Reno than McBride.

Reno is running an old-fashioned grass-roots campaign based largely on her celebrity. With little money for TV, she drove her red pickup truck throughout the state, showing off a homespun style aimed at grabbing the mantle of the legendary Lawton Chiles. Her problem is that much of her party sees her as the new Buddy MacKay, whom Bush defeated four years ago with more than 55 percent of the vote.

Jones, a 12-year state legislator short on money and mired in the shadows of the other candidates, has struggled for attention. He stood out in the lone televised debate, and his first TV ads began appearing this weekend -- a low-cost commercial that shows him talking directly into the camera with traffic noise in the background. But polls have consistently found him with less than 10 percent support.

McBride, meanwhile, spent most of the year ignoring all the skeptics and running a methodical campaign. He lined up major union endorsements, including the state teachers union, and a slew of support from elected officials. He proved a formidable fundraiser with the discipline to save his money for a final-stetch TV campaign even in the face of criticism from his own supporters eager for him to get a quicker start.

The Reno campaign estimates McBride, with major financial help from the teachers union, will have outspent it 9-to-1 on television ads.

On Saturday, the candidates mixed politics with football. Jones and Reno attended a Florida A&M game in Tallahassee on Saturday night, while earlier McBride, Reno and Bush converged in Gainesville for the Florida-Miami game.

"If we can win Tuesday, we'll just blow through November. Jeb Bush will never know what hit him," McBride, a University of Florida alum backed by former Gators coach Steve Spurrier, said at a pregame rally.

Reno hobnobbed with supporters at a tailgate party and worked the crowd, shaking hands and stopping constantly for photos.

"It's going to be tough," Alachua County Commissioner and Reno supporter Dave Newport said of the primary. "But that's good. Your competition makes you better."

Nearby, Bush exuded confidence amid 200 cheering supporters, many wearing Gators for Jeb stickers.

"'I am looking forward to the next 60 days to a hard, tough campaign to remind people what we've done, and let people know that vague empty promises aren't going to cut it in Florida," the governor said.

For most of the year, most everybody assumed the race would be Jeb vs. Janet. Not anymore.

Stu Joseph, once a lonely South Florida McBride supporter, said the tipping point seemed to come three weeks ago. He felt it in his gut, even before a neighbor in Jupiter traded her Janet Reno bumper sticker for a McBride sticker.

"You just sense something happening," the retired New York teacher said. "I used to keep bees, and I liken it to that. When the bees sense that the queen isn't right, the whole hive gets abuzz. They start rebuilding to get a new queen."

McBride now has a shot at one of the biggest political upsets in modern Florida history. The latest independent polls show a dead heat between Reno and McBride, although Republicans on Saturday touted an internal industry poll giving Reno a six-point lead in the primary.

As McBride surged, so did the excitement from members of the party establishment long skeptical about Reno's ability to take on Bush.

"If McBride wins, this turns into a national race," said Chris Korge, a Miami lobbyist and powerhouse Democratic fundraiser who until recently had written off McBride's chances against Reno. "Not only would you see Democrats and big contributors across the country keenly interested, but large unions. ... People believe a fresh face like Bill McBride can beat Jeb Bush."

Democratic U.S. Rep. Robert Wexler of Boca Raton called Tuesday's election a choice between the party's future and its past.

"The future of the Democratic Party is on Bill McBride's shoulders," said Wexler, many of whose constituents back Reno. "For months people thought it would be an undoable task to beat Jeb Bush, and now they see that they can."

The new signs of life in the Democratic Party were reflected in the latest campaign finance reports filed Friday. In the past two months, the Florida Democratic Party raised about $3.5-million, more than twice what it raised in each of its three-month reports filed this year.

But here are some numbers that should put the general election campaign into perspective for Democrats: The Florida GOP raised $8.8-million in the past two months. So far this year, Republicans raised more than $26-million -- four times what the Democrats have.

Aside from what the party will spend, Reno heads into the election with roughly $310,000. McBride's campaign has about $63,000 on hand. Bush has $5.2-million.

On Saturday, the governor sounded anything but intimidated about what's in store over the next 60 days.

"I can't wait," Bush said.

-- Staff writers Wes Allison and Steve Bousquet contributed to this report. Adam C. Smith can be reached at (727) 893-8241 or adam@sptimes.com.

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