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Smoking gun in Iraq might prove elusive
© St. Petersburg Times WASHINGTON -- There is no smoking gun -- no stunning new evidence that Iraq's military buildup has put the world in imminent danger. But that does not mean that President Bush has failed to make a case for a pre-emptive strike on Baghdad. Many members of Congress, after receiving closed-door intelligence briefings on the situation in Iraq, have emerged to say they are disappointed that the administration has not uncovered new information to indicate that Saddam Hussein's nuclear weapons development program is on the verge of a breakthrough. Without such evidence, these lawmakers say, they cannot support Bush's plan to go to war with Iraq. I am confident that most of us share the desire of these Congress members to avoid a military confrontation with Hussein's forces, but I am beginning to think their search for a smoking gun is wrong-headed. There is no question that Hussein's intention is to develop a complete arsenal of weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear warheads. And there is no doubt that he is making progress toward that goal, even though we don't know how far he's gotten. So why would it make sense to delay action against Iraq until we are certain it has the nuclear capability that Hussein has been working so hard to achieve? If the United States is going to intervene, why not do it before Iraq can fire a nuclear device? That, I believe, is the best argument Bush has for a pre-emptive strike. As Anthony H. Cordesman, a respected military expert, has observed: When a tyrant such as Hussein is plainly developing the ultimate weapon of mass destruction, "there is no magic deadline." The evidence becomes cumulative. "The problem is that Saddam is achieving a steadily more dangerous momentum and more threatening levels of uncertainty that will probably exist with and without U.N. inspection," Cordesman says. "To me, this is an important argument. To those calling for instant war, they have to puff the urgency of this threat. To those opposing action, it is an excuse to make impossible demands." At the same time, our lack of verifiable information about the capabilities of Hussein's weapons arsenal should give us pause. Not only do U.S. military analysts lack any sense of Iraq's capabilities, but Hussein has no idea how they will perform. That is a recipe for a military disaster. Assumptions are going to be made by both sides without a verifiable way to estimate the real power of one of the combatants. "We will really only discover how dangerous Iraq really is once it uses its weapons. ... It will be using delivery systems with little or minimal real world testing," Cordesman says. "Both Iraq and its targets will learn about accuracy, reliability, etc., the hard way." Two important factors add to the incredible uncertainty of this situation: Hussein is a maniac who equates his survival with the future of Iraq, and a U.S.-Iraqi confrontation will occur in a part of the world that is a tinderbox and Iraq can easily escalate the confrontation by directing its retaliation at Israel. Fortunately, Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres has pledged that his country will not retaliate without U.S. approval if Hussein tries to widen the war. "There will be only one command -- not two commands," Peres says. "Logic dictates that we follow American advice." And most of the moderate Arab states, even those that have not consented to serve as forward bases for American assault forces, appear willing to exercise restraint. Most Americans are not comfortable with the idea of a pre-emptive strike. Throughout our history, we have usually waited to be attacked before we have lashed out at other countries. But in an era when weapons of mass destruction are more likely to be delivered in a suitcase than by a long-range missile, it might no longer make sense to wait. "To postpone the attack now is taking the same risk maybe as in 1939, in the face of Adolf Hitler," Peres said. "The lives of innocent people are in danger. We can imagine now some of the dangers." -- Sara Fritz can be reached at fritz@sptimes.com or (202) 463-0576.
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Times columns today Ernest Hooper Gary Shelton Sara Fritz |
