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Survivor: Thailand debuts tonight with a Tampa woman in the cast and experts wondering if the sun has set on the ground-breaking reality show.
By ERIC DEGGANS, Times TV Critic
© St. Petersburg Times, published September 19, 2002
She has never met Jan Gentry, and she isn't quite sure what she'd do if they crossed paths.
But longtime Survivor fan Gloria Hill-Serralta is thinking about starting a fan club for the Tampa woman among friends in her Tampa Palms neighborhood and co-workers at the University of South Florida.
Industry types may speculate that CBS's longtime reality TV hit is facing a tough season oppositeFriends' final season and a proliferation of knockoffs. But Hill-Serralta remains a dedicated and fervent viewer whose enthusiasm for the show is stoked by the news that a contestant in Survivor: Thailand lives in her community.
"It's makes you think, 'That could have been me,"' said Hill-Serralta, a data processing supervisor for USF who plans to watch tonight's debut with friends at a local bar. "It's like watching your home team playing in the big leagues. She's a teacher, she's middle-aged . . . she's an inspiration."
But some TV experts warn that Survivor -- which strands 16 people in a remote location, with one person voted out of the competition until a final $1-million winner is chosen -- could be about to fall off a ratings cliff.
"We may be getting to the point where Survivor has stayed too long at the fair," said Robert Thompson, head of the Center for the Study of Popular Television at Syracuse University, noting that Survivor: Thailand will be the show's fifth edition since its debut in the summer of 2000.
"The competition is really reaching critical mass, not only in the number of (Survivor rip-offs), but in the quality of them," Thompson said. "American Idol was a really good and fun show. . . . The Bachelor and The Osbournes were also popular. And in the first Survivor, it was so much fun to see these (contestants) becoming stars before your eyes. Now, it's becoming clear that's what's really at stake is a good career starring in special celebrity episodes of other reality shows."
Consider the ratings. The show's last edition, Survivor: Marquesas, drew an estimated 25.6-million viewers in May -- the most-watched show on a busy Sunday night that included a Cosby Show retrospective, The X-Files series finale and a two-hour season-ending episode of The Practice.
But that viewer tally was still below viewership for the Survivor: Africa finale, which drew 27.3-million viewers in January. The show's second edition, Survivor: The Australian Outback, drew 36.4-million in May 2001, while the original Survivor attracted 51.7-million in August 2000.
"I don't sense Survivor's drawing a lot of new viewers; we've seen a settling down into a core audience that will erode over time," said Steve Beverly, a professor of broadcasting at Union University in Jackson, Tenn., who maintains the Web site TVgameshows.net. "The reason Survivor has stayed around is (because) largely in the public's mind, it was first and it was the defining moment for what I call 'game operas,"' Beverly said. "This show succeeds more with (contestants) you love to hate. Definitely the inverse of (many game shows); here, people root contestants off the show."
But others caution against downplaying the appeal of a series that remained a top five TV show, even while airing against Friends' most popular season ever.
"I would never underestimate the value of being first in forging a new and popular genre of programming," said Tim Brooks, co-author of The Complete Directory to Prime Time Network and Cable TV Shows. "Viewers are forgiving for a show they remember as introducing them to a genre they really liked."
Certainly, Survivor exploded onto TV screens in its debut edition, earning a coveted Time cover and enshrining the catch phrase "You've been voted off the island" into the pop lexicon.
Of course, it also inspired a raft of imitations, from Fox's Temptation Island (Survivor plus sex) to NBC's Dog Eat Dog (Survivor in a studio setting). CBS's Big Brother 3 adopted Survivor's element of contestants voting each other off the game last season, and a jury of ejected contestants will pick the final winner this season.
"It's a show that runs in slices, giving audiences time to catch their breath," said Brooks, noting Survivor airs in three-month bursts, twice a year. "Unlike Who Wants to Be a Millionaire, which never seemed to go away once it was on . . . Survivor started like a supernova, and that heat can last awhile if you handle it right."
Brooks' compliments were echoed by Tim Gilman, a San Francisco software writer who created the Web site survivornews.net, an area devoted to news reports, gossip and predictions on the show's course.
Gilman regularly sifts through news reports, tips from knowledgeable sources and sneak previews to glean as much advance knowledge as possible about the latest Survivor, which was filmed over June and July on the island of Koh Tarutao off the southern coast of Thailand.
Because the game has already concluded -- though the final, $1-million winner won't be revealed until the show's live finale three months from now -- guessing upcoming twists and turns has become a popular diversion online, Gilman said.
"Survivor is basically a real-life detective story," he said. "I don't see any other show that has a fan base online like Survivor has."
Online gaming sites don't give Tampa's Gentry much of a chance. But Gilman's tips lead him to conclude the 53-year-old first-grade teacher is among the most likely to emerge victorious.
"I've been hearing . . . that the older characters rule the roost this time," Gilman said (Gentry is the oldest woman and second-oldest contestant on the island). "There have been several rumors about weight loss. Ted Rogers, Brian Heidik, Jan Gentry were all reported to come back noticeably thinner, which suggests they were on the show longer."
Fans also are buzzing over rumors of a big change in the game. Already, preview clips have shown host Jeff Probst separating contestants by gender, though Gilman expects the change to be more complex than what's been revealed so far.
"There's a very big change that happens in minute one of the show, that changes things forever," admitted Probst, who would provide no specifics in an interview last month. "It's the way we're starting the show. Basically, our whole job (this edition) is to stay ahead of the pack (and) our message is: Don't assume anything. You may think you know how this game is played, but you don't."
Such promises sound just fine to fans such as Hill-Serralta, who looks forward to watching Survivor's mysteries unravel week-to-week.
"Each season they bring something new and exciting," she said. "Once you watch the show you feel bonded with (the contestants). . . . You feel a connection with each one. And now that there's someone from Tampa Bay in there, that just makes it more fun."
Survivor: Thailand debuts at 8 tonight on WTSP-Ch. 10.