In Cabinet races, upsets shaping up

Democrat Buddy Dyer has never run for statewide office before, and most voters don't know who he is, yet a new poll puts him dead even with Republican Charlie Crist in the race for attorney general.

Voters also don't know the two candidates for agriculture commissioner, but most plan to vote for Democrat David Nelson, a Miami school teacher and political newcomer, over Republican incumbent Charles Bronson, according to the latest St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald poll.

The poll puts Crist at 43 percent and Dyer at 41 percent, a statistical dead heat.

With both candidates drawing virtually equal numbers of crossover voters, the battle in the coming weeks will be over the 16 percent who are undecided.

For Crist to win, he may need to resort to the tough-on-crime stance typically associated with the Republican Party, said pollster Rob Schroth.

The poll was conducted Sept. 24-26 by the Washington-based polling firms of Schroth & Associates, whose political clients are primarily Democrats, and the Polling Co., whose political clients are Republicans. The statewide telephone survey of 800 registered voters who described themselves as likely voters in the Nov. 5 general election has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.

Dyer positioned himself well by flooding the airwaves across the state before the Sept. 10 Democratic primary with TV ads that cast him as tough on corporate crime and good for seniors.

His goal: come out of the primary with as much name recognition as Crist, who is much better known after running two statewide races, including a failed bid for U.S. Senate.

Extending Dyer's appeal beyond core Democratic voters was a strategy that nearly cost him the primary -- he beat Tallahassee Mayor Scott Maddox by just 2 percentage points -- but the poll suggests it could pay off in the general election.

Still, Dyer has to work harder to reach voters like Edna Constant, a Kenneth City Democrat. A retired nurse, Constant plans to vote for Crist.

"I don't know the other one at all," said Constant. She could change her mind if she gets to know and like Dyer, she said. "I can be swayed."

Crist, state education commissioner for the past two years, has a television ad touting his 1995 sponsorship of a bill that requires violent criminals to serve 85 percent of their sentences. Dyer voted for the bill and mentions it in one of his own ads.

Dyer has solid support in South Florida's Democratic base, while the state's Panhandle is aligned with Crist, the poll found. Dyer trails Crist by 9 points in Dyer's Central Florida home base, and Crist leads in his home base of Pinellas and Hillsborough counties.

Dyer leads with women, especially working women, and African-Americans, while Crist leads with men and Hispanics.

More than a fourth of voters are undecided in the race for agricultural commissioner, possibly because few have any idea who the candidates are.

With just five weeks before the election, 60 percent of voters have never heard of Bronson or Nelson, although more favor Nelson, 41 percent to 34 percent.

"We were all shocked to see David Nelson ahead," Schroth said. Name recognition counts, even if people aren't exactly sure which name they recognize.

"I just think David Nelson sounds a lot like Bill Nelson or Ricky Nelson," said Schroth, referring to Florida's junior U.S. senator and the late son of television icons Ozzie and Harriet.

But Nelson's name may not be the only reason he's pulling ahead. His opponent shares a name with an actor known for violent movies. "A lot of people don't like Charles Bronson movies," said pollster Kellyanne Conway.

For St. Petersburg real estate developer Ray Easterlin, however, their names have nothing to do with whom he's voting for.

"Bronson's the Republican, isn't he? I'm going to go for him," Easterlin said. "Unless a Republican candidate is just unacceptable, I'm going to vote for him."

Bronson has spent little of the $1.3-million he has raised, an amount considered the bare minimum for a statewide race, but far more than Nelson has.

Agriculture interests helped build Nelson's name recognition by running TV ads on his behalf while attacking his primary opponent, millionaire environmentalist Mary Barley.

The attorney general and agriculture commissioner will sit on a Cabinet that has shrunk from six members to three, giving both seats more power than they have had in the past.

-- Times researcher Deirdre Morrow contributed to this report.

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