McBride closes gap, but Bush still strong

POLL: BUSH 50%, McBRIDE 44%: Voters said they trust Gov. Jeb Bush more than challenger Bill McBride.

By ADAM C. SMITH, Times Political Editor
© St. Petersburg Times
published September 29, 2002

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How the support is divided Cllick chart below to enlarge.

A few months ago, Republican Gov. Jeb Bush appeared to be cruising smoothly to a second term.

No more.

Democratic challenger Bill McBride, coming off his upset primary victory over Janet Reno, has pulled within striking distance of Bush. But Bush still holds the upper hand: Voters trust him more on an array of key issues, a new St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald poll shows.

While McBride has cut Bush's lead from 21 points to 6 points since March, Bush handily leads McBride everywhere except south and southwest Florida.

And there's trouble at home for the Tampa lawyer. Voters in Hillsborough and Pinellas strongly favor Bush.

The governor also appears to be easing some doubts about his record on the centerpiece issue of the campaign: improving public schools. In March, more than half of likely voters disapproved of Bush's performance on schools. Now 48 percent approve and 42 percent disapprove.

Overall, Bush leads McBride among likely voters 50 percent to 44 percent, with 6 percent undecided, the poll found.

Still, the poll offers good news for both candidates.

"Bill McBride has the promised land of victory in sight, but the road from here will be difficult," said pollster Rob Schroth. "Only 6 percent of voters are undecided, which means that any McBride victory will require converting Bush voters to his side."

What's more, Bush has dramatically increased his support among African-American voters, and the poll shows voters trust the governor more than McBride even on issues that tend to favor Democrats. Voters said they trusted Bush more to improve public schools, protect the interests of the middle class, reduce taxes, fight crime and encourage high moral values. On protecting the environment, McBride led Bush by just one point.

The St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald poll was conducted Sept. 24-26 by the Washington-based polling firms of Schroth & Associates, whose political clients are primarily Democrats, and the Polling Co., whose political clients are Republicans.

The statewide telephone survey of 800 registered voters who described themselves as likely voters in the Nov. 5 general election has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

"A majority of voters broadly and deeply approve of the job Jeb Bush is doing in office," said pollster Kellyanne Conway of the Polling Co. "It is rare to see a candidate for office who can boast high marks on issues as diverse as improving public education and reducing taxes."

Jay Johnson of St. Petersburg, a Republican human resources specialist with GE Financial with two public school children, is happy with Bush.

"I think Jeb is pretty experienced now, and his personality, the whole nine yards, I like," Johnson said.

The outcome in November might depend on how perceptions of McBride are shaped over the next five weeks. One in three voters said they knew little or nothing about him and both campaigns will spend millions trying to influence perceptions.

Jimmy Hassan, a Miami Republican, hasn't decided whether to support Bush again. He said he wants to learn more about McBride.

Bush is doing okay in "many areas, but in other areas I see weakness," said Hassan, 46, a minister with a son in high school. "I think the schools are not progressing enough. Education, I think that it can be better. I think the disaster in the children's (protection) department is very serious."

McBride has an opportunity to galvanize one-third of Florida voters, Conway said, but has to weigh whether to focus his campaign message on promoting himself or criticizing Bush.

"Does he spend his resources defining Bill McBride or defining Jeb Bush? There's probably not enough resources to do both," she said.

McBride recently opened his general election campaign with a TV ad about his middle class roots, volunteering to fight in Vietnam, and his promise to improve schools. During the primary, the Bush campaign aired spots attacking McBride as a greedy corporate lawyer who laid off employees to enrich his law firm.

The new poll suggests the Bush ads had limited success, with 44 percent of voters disagreeing that such Republican attacks would hurt McBride and 34 percent agreeing.

Forty-seven percent of voters had a favorable impression of McBride and 20 percent had an unfavorable sense of him. Bush was viewed favorably by 58 percent and unfavorably by 38 percent.

Potentially more troubling for McBride are voter perceptions about education. McBride is campaigning almost exclusively on the need to spend more on public schools, and challenging Bush's education record.

Yet 49 percent of voters said they trusted Bush more to improve schools while 44 percent trusted McBride more. In March, 44 percent had more faith in McBride on schools and 38 percent had more faith in Bush.

Winning back the education mantle will be crucial to McBride.

"He has to take those numbers back to March. That's what political campaigns are all about. And it won't be easy in the time remaining," Schroth said.

McBride won the Democratic primary despite losing overwhelmingly to Reno in south Florida's Democratic strongholds. The poll suggests South Florida is quickly uniting behind him -- 59 percent of likely voters there back McBride and 36 percent Bush.

McBride, though, has yet to win over the kind of overwhelming support Reno had from African-American voters. Almost 40 percent of black voters said they knew little or nothing about McBride, and 24 percent said they would vote for Bush.

That's a huge number, given that roughly nine in 10 black voters are registered Democrats. Four years ago, Bush set a Republican record when 14 percent of black voters backed him.

McBride is focusing on winning over black Democrats, with a meeting in Miami-Dade last week and another in Hillsborough on Monday.

The bilingual governor is wildly popular among Hispanic voters, with 70 percent saying they intend to vote for him. He also has a 2-to-1 advantage over McBride among voters under 35, and leads McBride handily among voters 65 and older. Men strongly favor Bush, and women are split between the candidates.

But McBride overwhelmingly leads among working women, and he leads 47 percent to 42 percent among crucial independent voters. Still, the former Marine captain has yet to show the kind of strong appeal in north Florida and central Florida that he demonstrated in the Democratic primary. Even in McBride's home base, the crucial battleground around Tampa Bay, Bush holds a strong lead.

In Hillsborough County, 61 percent of voters support Bush and 38 percent McBride. In Pinellas, 54 percent back Bush and 40 percent McBride.

"I think South Florida polarized in McBride's favor faster than any area of the state. If I were McBride, I would look in my own back yard, and attempt to deal with that situation more than I would with South Florida," Schroth said.

The poll highlights Florida's stark political divisions that showed up in the 2000 presidential election. Voters are evenly divided, 47 percent to 47 percent, on whether the state is headed in the right direction. A similar division existed last March, though Floridians today are more pessimistic about the direction of America.

Forty-three percent say the country is heading in the right direction, down from 56 percent in March. Those who felt America is on the wrong track surged from 26 percent to 46 percent.

The economic recovery and war on terrorism have not made the strides voters had expected last March, Conway said.

Florida voters approve of the president's performance more than they do his brother in Tallahassee.

President Bush's job approval rating dropped from 70 percent to 60 percent, while Gov. Bush's fell slightly from 56 percent to 54 percent. Voters who disapprove of the governor's job performance rose from 35 percent to 41 percent, though the poll suggests voters like Bush's personality more than his record.

"He's a very likeable person, just like his brother," said Nancy Schilling, a Democratic insurance representative from Palm Bay.

Schilling voted for Bush in 1998. "He's done a pretty good job. Everybody could always use more help, but I think Florida came through okay after 9/11."

On the other side is Sandy Schacherl, a Cape Coral Democrat. She's not enthusiastic about McBride but can't stand Bush.

"He's insincere," she said. "He doesn't appear to me to be mature enough. He doesn't care about the little people, as Leona Helmsley would put it."

A majority of voters approved of Bush's handling of the economy, but a majority disapproved of his managing of the state's child protection system, which has been racked with controversy.

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