Report: Iraq working on weapons

WASHINGTON -- U.S. intelligence agencies, in a broad assessment of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction capabilities released Friday, have concluded that if left unchecked Iraq will "probably have a nuclear weapon during this decade."

The intelligence document added, however, that if Iraq can acquire weapons-grade fissile material from abroad -- which it said Baghdad is actively trying to do -- "it could make a nuclear weapon within a year."

Since U.N. weapons inspections ended in 1998, Iraq "has maintained its chemical weapons effort, energized its missile program and invested more heavily in biological weapons," the report stated. Although financially strapped by U.N. sanctions, Baghdad diverts $10-billion worth of humanitarian goods entering Iraq each year to support its military and weapons programs, it said.

The report mirrors the findings and judgments of a classified National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq, a survey of all U.S. intelligence agencies sent to members of the Senate Intelligence Committee on Tuesday. It is slightly more conservative in its projection of Iraq's future capabilities than a dossier on Iraq's weapons programs released last week by Britain.

The document compiles the analysis of several different U.S. intelligence agencies, including the CIA, Defense Intelligence Agency and the Energy Department's intelligence unit, which monitors nuclear matters. As such, it is the most extensive intelligence assessment of Iraq's chemical, biological and nuclear weapons programs to be made public in several years.

The report said that Iraq's offensive biological weapons research program is "active and most elements are large and more advanced than they were before the Gulf War" in 1991. Iraq is capable of "quickly producing and weaponizing" a variety of agents, including anthrax, "for delivery by bombs, missiles, aerial sprayers, and covert operatives, including potentially against the U.S. homeland," it said.

Baghdad's biological weapons are well hidden in "highly survivable" facilities, some of them mobile, the report said. "It can exceed production rates Iraq had prior to the Gulf War."

Before its departure from Iraq in 1998, the International Atomic Energy Agency "made significant strides toward dismantling Iraq's nuclear weapons program," the report said. In the absence of U.N. inspectors, "Baghdad's already considerable ability to work on prohibited programs without risk of discovery has increased, and there is substantial evidence that Iraq is reconstituting prohibited programs."

Bent on reconstituting its nuclear program, Iraq has retained the cadre of nuclear scientists, technicians and dual-use manufacturing facilities to make that possible, it said.

Among other key findings in the report:

-- Iraq has rebuilt missile and biological weapons facilities damaged during U.S. cruise missile strikes in 1998.

-- It has begun renewed production of chemical warfare agents, probably including mustard, sarin, cyclosarin and VX -- all lethal chemical toxins.

-- It "probably has stocked a few hundred metric tons" of chemical agents.

-- Discrepancies in Iraq's accounting of its Scud missiles suggest Iraqi President Saddam Hussein "retains a covert force of up to a few dozen Scud missiles with a range of 650 to 900 kilometers."

In the area of nuclear weapons, the report notes one area of disagreement within the intelligence community dealing with Iraq's attempts to procure "tens of thousands" of high-strength aluminum tubes needed to enrich uranium used in making a nuclear bomb.

"All intelligence experts agree that Iraq is seeking nuclear weapons and that these tubes could be used in a centrifuge enrichment program," the report stated. "Most intelligence specialists assess this to be the intended use, but some believe that these tubes are probably intended for conventional weapons programs."

In the report

An unclassified intelligence report released Friday by CIA officials alleges that Iraq:

NUCLEAR PROGRAM

-- Tried to covertly obtain tens of thousands of high-strength aluminum tubes that could be used in centrifuges used to enrich uranium for nuclear weapons. Some shipments were stopped, but some may have gotten through.

-- Retains a cadre of nuclear scientists.

BIOLOGICAL PROGRAM

-- Announced it would upgrade its al-Dawrah Foot-and-Mouth Disease Vaccine Facility in 2001 without U.N. approval. Iraq acknowledged in 1996 it had produced biological weapons at the site, but says it now only intends to produce vaccine. However, the report says Iraq can import all the vaccine it needs.

-- Expanded its storage capacity at the Amiriyah Serum and Vaccine Institute, "which greatly exceeds Iraq's needs for legitimate medical storage."

-- Rebuilt major structures at the Fallujah III Castor Oil Production Plant, which were bombed by U.S. and British warplanes in 1998. Iraq says it is making castor oil for brake fluid, but the report says it could be used to produce ricin, a toxin that is used in weapons.

-- Can make biological weapons at mobile production facilities that are difficult to detect.

CHEMICAL PROGRAM

-- Probably has between 110 and 550 tons of chemical weapon agents, including VX, sarin, cyclosarin and mustard.

-- Has not used one-third of 33-million pounds of chlorine imported under the oil-for-food program, suggesting some has been diverted to weapons' programs.

-- Upgraded the Fallujah II chemical plant west of Baghdad since 2000, expanding chlorine output. Iraq is also trying to hide its activities there.

Additional information

Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction Programs

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