Poll shows Bush lead getting slim

The latest independent survey in the race for governor has incumbent Jeb Bush holding a lead of 3 percentage points over Democratic challenger Bill McBride . The Zogby poll of 500 likely voters for MSNBC was conducted Oct. 8-10, and has a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.

Pollster John Zogby said one sign of trouble for Bush is that 45 percent of those surveyed said Bush deserved to be re-elected and 48 percent said he did not. The rest did not give any opinion.

"There's a mood of anti-incumbency all over the country, and it's leveling incumbents and front-runners in a number of races," Zogby said. "And Bush has some vulnerabilities. . . . The state is split. I'm really comfortable with these numbers."

Zogby's poll has McBride leading Bush 54 percent to 46 percent among Hispanic voters, a statistic that seems far-fetched. Zogby downplayed those numbers, noting that the Hispanic voter sample was about 75 people and has an error margin of 11 percentage points.

Bush strategists said the poll simply confirms what they've been saying all along: It's a close race.

"Polls are going to bounce up and down. That's why we're going to run as if we're down," Bush campaign spokesman Todd Harris said.

Critics of the proposed class size amendment may not have all the money they want to campaign against the initiative, but there is one thing they have plenty of: hyperbole.

For weeks now, Gov. Jeb Bush has warned that the amendment would "block out the sun."

Recently, attorney Phil Morgaman, one of the first contributors to the anti-amendment PAC, characterized the class size initiative as "a nuclear weapon aimed at our schools."

Florida's Education Secretary Jim Horne has done his part, calling it the "Armageddon of funding."

At this rate, Amendment 9 will be slightly more dangerous than Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden combined.

Florida House Speaker Tom Feeney, in a tough fight for a new Orlando congressional seat with Democrat Harry Jacobs, issued an unusual promise last week: "I've never taken money from an Arab sheik to pass legislation, and I won't if I'm elected to Congress."

Feeney made the vow after Jacobs compared Feeney's lobbying practices to the Abscam scandal of 1980, in which FBI agents posed as Arab businessmen and snared members of Congress with bribes.

Comptroller Bob Milligan, a Republican, sent mini shock waves through Tallahassee last month when he publicly said nice things about fellow Marine and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Bill McBride . Milligan wouldn't even rule out endorsing McBride. But that's not going to happen.

"Bush deserves another term," Milligan said last week. "I'm not happy with everything he's done, but Bush is a good leader. He's very charismatic, and he's done a lot of good things."

Still, the independent-minded comptroller called McBride "a very strong leader" and lamented that Bush has surrounded himself with some people who give him poor advice and that he hasn't treated state employees better.

He may be Florida's junior U.S. senator, but Bill Nelson is king of the Tallahassee real estate market.

Nelson made a handsome profit on the sale of his former Tallahassee home, called "Live Oaks." The Wall Street Journal reports that Nelson and his wife, Grace, no longer needed a 6,800-square-foot home in the state capital, so they sold the Greek revival mansion.

The asking price was $1.25-million. The Nelsons settled for $970,000. Even that is a local record for a residential sale. The Nelsons bought the place for $740,000 in 1994.

Bill McBride isn't giving up on his challenge to Jeb Bush to join him on a flatbed truck for a statewide tour debating the future of Florida. While jumping on Bush's comments that he had "devious plans" to deal with a ballot initiative mandating smaller class sizes, McBride again threw out the flatbed truck challenge.

"Ask him if he's got any devious plans to handle my flatbed truck idea," McBride told reporters.

Gov. Jeb Bush minces no words when he thinks the truth has been distorted. Here's an excerpt of an exchange between a reporter and Bush on the subject of a loan program for teachers he announced last week:

"What are your thoughts on the fact that now the banks are coming out and saying that the home loan program that you introduced on Monday was actually an existing program that's been in place for a while."

"That's not correct."

"You don't think so?"

"No. The Bank of America had a loan program for teachers, but it did not include the inducements from Freddie Mac."

"So in your mind, the program . . ."

"No, not in my mind, I'm just telling you what the fact is. The home loan program with Bank of America has been in existence. The Freddie Mac program, now, when you combine it, reduces the mortgage payments down to zero percent."

"So that's the program on Monday. That's the new program?"

"Absolutely."

-- Steve Bousquet, Wes Allison, Adam Smith, Stephen Hegarty and Jay Cridlin were on spin patrol. Send tips to spinpatrol@sptimes.com

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