Ireland voting yes on EU expansion in early results

DUBLIN, Ireland -- Supporters of European Union expansion took an early lead in Ireland's crucial referendum, the first official returns showed Saturday.

Voters in six Dublin districts gave a resounding endorsement to the EU's plan to extend membership to the formerly communist states of the east. They represented less than a sixth of Ireland's total electorate but provided heartening news to the government, which pushed hard for a "yes" vote.

Final results are expected today. In one of the six reporting districts, 73 percent of voters backed a bigger EU, which would extend from the Baltic to the Mediterranean and Russia's border to the Atlantic. In the district with the weakest showing for the pro-expansion camp, 56 percent of the votes backed the EU plan.

Several of the reporting districts voted "no" when Ireland held a similar referendum last year.

Turnout in the six districts appeared to be high, ranging from 44 to 55 percent, far above last year's 34 percent. Strong turnout is believed to favor the pro-expansionists.

"This referendum is all over," said Dublin political analyst Noel Whelan, who forecast a resounding victory for the treaty when full results come.

Whelan noted that the capital's vote had swung 10 to 20 percent in favor of the "yes" camp compared with June 2001, when Irish voters shocked their EU neighbors by rejecting the expansion plan.

A second Irish rejection of the plan would put expansion on ice for years.

The expansion blueprint is contained in a treaty negotiated in December 2000 in Nice, France, to fulfill the post-Cold War dream of integrating former communist states into the European fold. The treaty would also reorganize EU institutions to streamline decisionmaking in an expanded union of nearly a half billion people.

The treaty must be ratified by all 15 current members of the EU. Fourteen have done so by parliamentary vote, but Ireland's constitution requires a referendum.

Irish voters turned down the treaty in July 2001 by 54 percent to 46 percent.

European Union officials have said there is no fallback plan for expansion if the Irish reject the treaty a second time.

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