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Candidates rely on polls more than they like to say
By Times staff writers After the McBride campaign released an internal poll last week showing their guy tied with Bush, the Republicans countered with their own poll showing Bush ahead by 9 points.
McLaughlin's poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday for a big agricultural interest to gauge Republican Agriculture Commissioner Charles Bronson's bid to stave off David Nelson, a Democratic novice and apparent front-runner. Polls help campaigns craft strategy but also are sales tools for fundraising. Donors like winners and the more evidence they have that their candidate will win, the more likely they are to contribute. Of course, candidates like to pretend they don't pay attention to polls. Gov. Jeb Bush told the St. Petersburg Times editorial board that when asked whether his opposition to the popular class size initiative hurt him. But minutes later, when asked why several independent polls show the race is unexpectedly tight, Bush said he wasn't worried. His polls show he's going to win, he said. * * * The Coalition to Protect Florida still plans to launch a serious campaign against the class size initiative. But that takes millions of dollars, and the opponents don't have anything close to that. The campaign raised $175,503 through Oct. 11, campaign reports show. That amounts to seven contributions from developers such as the St. Joe Company ($50,000) and Eddie Debartolo ($25,000). "We've raised more since Oct. 11," said spokesman Cory Tilley. "I figure we have about 12 days where the money can still matter. I can tell you we'll have the ads up and running before the last week" before the Nov. 5 election. * * * For all the national interest in the governor's race, the campaign finance disclosure reports released for Bush and McBride show Floridians are the ones giving most of the money directly to the campaigns since September. In the first month after the primary, 94 percent of the donations to McBride's campaign came from within the state. Nearly 60 percent of the $835,000 he raised Sept. 6 through Oct. 4 came from central Florida. Ninety-three percent of Bush's more than $670,000 was from within state, the biggest chunk, 45 percent, also coming from central Florida. Details were not yet available for the week ending Oct. 11, when McBride picked up another $530,000. Of course, the real money is in the unlimited contributions to the state parties. And how much that adds up to is unknown because lawmakers this year eliminated a reporting period that used to be required. * * * The Bush campaign tried to ensnare McBride last week by demanding that he "repudiate" and "condemn" Bishop Victor T. Curry, a popular black Miami radio host and preacher and the former head of the NAACP there. McBride appeared on Curry's radio show two weeks ago. Before McBride arrived at the station that morning, in response to calls from listeners who oppose war in Iraq, Curry ranted against President Bush, saying his administration was "on a neo-Nazi, right-wing mission against the American people" and suggesting the Bush clan and the family of Osama Bin Laden are "business partners seeking to profit from war." Last week, Curry compared the president to Adolf Hitler. McBride said he didn't agree with Curry and supports his commander-in-chief. He also said he'd re-enlist in the Marine Corps and leave for the Middle East if the president asked. "I certainly wouldn't stand by anything like that," McBride said of Curry's statements. The governor wasn't satisfied. "I'm sure Bill McBride does not agree with these terrible remarks made by his supporter. But for some reason, he has done nothing about it and said nothing about it," Bush said in a statement Friday. It's a no-lose strategy for Bush: If McBride says nothing, he risks looking like he won't take a stand against a supporter. If he condemns Curry, he risks alienating his supporters. The governor, by the way, appeared on Curry's radio show when he was running in 1998. -- Adam C. Smith, Steve Bosquet, Wes Allison, Steve Hegarty and Lucy Morgan were on spin patrol. Send tips to spinpatrol@sptimes.com
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From the Times state desk
From the state wire
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Adam will take your questions on local, state and national elections and share his thoughts on other campaign issues. If you can't attend this live event, 
