State: Support ebbs for class size limit

Support for the proposed class size amendment remains high, a new poll finds, but it is eroding amid relentless attacks led by Gov. Jeb Bush , who warns it will lead to higher taxes and cuts in services.

The amendment fails if voters become convinced of the governor's warning, the poll found.

• A page of poll graphics

The initiative is supported by 62 percent of likely voters, down from 71 percent in September, according to a St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald poll conducted last week.

But forty-seven percent said they would vote against the amendment if they become convinced that it would cost as much as $27.5-billion over eight years and lead to higher taxes and service cuts. In September, support was at 49 percent with the price tag. Now, it drops to 40 percent.

Meanwhile, an amendment to provide free prekindergarten for the state's 4-year-olds still enjoys strong support, with 62 percent approval ratings and no organized opposition. Both Bush and Democratic challenger Bill McBride support the measure.

Voters are less enthusiastic about an amendment to establish a board to oversee the state's universities. Forty-nine percent support the initiative, but about one out of four likely voters still hasn't decided or doesn't understand the initiative.

The poll was conducted Wednesday through Friday by the Washington-based polling firms of Schroth & Associates, whose political clients are primarily Democrats, and the Polling Company, whose political clients are Republicans.

The statewide telephone survey of 800 registered voters who described themselves as likely voters in the Nov. 5 general election has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.

Voters will find 10 amendments to the Florida constitution on the Nov. 5 ballot, but only one has generated much interest. Amendment 9, which would reduce and cap class sizes statewide, has begun to dominate even the governor's race.

The potential price tag has chipped away at support for the initiative. The question is whether opponents are running out of time.

Originally, voters were to see a price tag next to the amendment on the ballot. But the Florida Supreme Court tossed the law requiring that. Now, opponents must get their message across to voters before they enter the voting booth.

For some, the appeal of smaller classes remains strong no matter what opponents say.

"I know this thing is going to cost a lot of money. That doesn't bother me," said Susan Dennick of Tampa, who took part in the poll. "I'm willing to pay because this state has to do something."

But for others, the prospect of higher taxes is a big turnoff.

"I like the idea, but not if it costs all that money," said Robert Thomas of Niceville, near Fort Walton Beach in the Panhandle. "That's just too much money and I don't know what we'd get for it."

The campaigns for and against the class size initiative promise to turn up the heat as election day nears. The Coalition to Protect Florida, which opposes the amendment, has spent the past month trotting out educators and business groups who oppose the amendment. Last week, the coalition began airing a television ad warning of dire consequences if the amendment passes. But opponents say they need a lot more money to get their message out.

"They've got to put a price tag on this sucker," pollster Rob Schroth said. "Clearly if they can shout the loudest from the mountaintop that this is a bad economic move in bad economic times" they can defeat the amendment.

The opposition's best weapon may be Gov. Jeb Bush . The poll finds him comfortably ahead of Democratic challenger Bill McBride , and he is constantly in the media spotlight. He passionately opposes the amendment, knowing he'll have to find a way to pay for it if he's re-elected. Bush has attacked McBride for supporting the initiative without a plan to pay for it. Bush has not said how he would pay for it, either.

Amendment advocates are also making their case. They spent more than $1-million getting the initiative on the Nov. 5 ballot and have done little fundraising since then. In recent weeks, they opened phone banks around the state, including in Tampa and St. Petersburg, in which volunteers call potential voters to encourage them to vote for Amendment 9.

Now they are starting their own television campaign. On Monday, the People for the American Way, a liberal interest group, is scheduled to unveil a television ad supporting Amendment 9. The organization is one of the biggest financial supporters of the amendment, along with national teachers unions.

McBride continues to support the amendment, content to link himself with a ballot initiative that has approval ratings any candidate would envy.

For supporters, the final week of the campaign is a time to shore up voters' reflexive support for what seems like a simple, albeit costly, prescription for improving Florida's schools.

"Of course I support it," said Charlene Brady of Apopka, who has grandchildren in the state's public schools. "I think kids get lost in those big classes. It's time to do something about it."

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Lucy Morgan

From the Times state desk