Weather | Sports | Forums | Comics | Classifieds | Calendar | Movies
October 27, 2002
WASHINGTON -- Republicans hold a clear advantage in the battle for control of the House in next week's elections, according to an Associated Press survey.
At the midpoint of President Bush's term, the survey also points to Democratic gains in gubernatorial races, including Pennsylvania, Illinois and Michigan, industrial states long in Republican hands.
Despite the millions spent on polling and tens of millions on political advertising, "It's literally just about now that the 20 percent to 30 percent of the electorate ... are beginning to tune in for the first time," said Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster.
"The people don't move and focus until the last five days," agreed House Democratic leader Dick Gephardt, hoping economic issues will trigger a late surge.
Nationwide polls offer contradictory clues to an electorate that will cast ballots in a time of terrorism, economic slowdown and possible war with Iraq.
Growing numbers of Americans say the nation is moving down the wrong track, 51 percent in a recent survey for NPR.
Yet President Bush's approval ratings are in the 60 percent range. He also has embarked on a campaign tour designed to seal a historic midterm triumph for his party, possibly even gaining House seats.
House Democrats, eight years out of power, need to gain seven seats to be assured of control.
Republicans account for 27 governors to 21 for Democrats and two independents.
With less than 10 days remaining in the campaign, as few as two dozen House seats out of 435 appear to be seriously competitive, according to public and private polls and assessments by strategists in the two parties. Democrats would need to win roughly two-thirds of them to gain control, a challenge complicated by a GOP advantage in fundraising.
In gubernatorial contests, Republicans appear poised to win in Hawaii for the first time since 1962, three years after statehood. GOP candidates also are mounting strong challenges to Democratic incumbents in South Carolina and Alabama.
On the other hand, Democrats are well ahead in three industrial states, and have hopes of capturing the statehouse in Kansas. Jeb Bush is in a close race for re-election in Florida. Democratic Gov. Gray Davis holds a shaky lead in polls in California.
In a year with 36 gubernatorial races, 34 Senate campaigns and 435 House seats on ballots, no single issue dominates. A recent Wall Street Journal-NBC poll found that 47 percent of those surveyed cited the economy as the most important issue, but 39 percent selected terrorism and Iraq.
Bush receives relatively good, steady marks for his handling of an economy that has recently lost private sector jobs and is growing only sluggishly. Despite strenuous efforts by the Democrats, voters do not see them as having a clear alternative.
Opposition to the administration's Iraq policy appears strong among Democratic voters. But nationally, Bush wins majority support for his handling of the issue. In the House races where the battle for control will be settled, few if any Democrats have chosen to disagree with the commander in chief's threat of military action.
The president talks terrorism and the economy by turns in his campaign rounds. "Our economy isn't as good as it should be. It's bumping along," he said in Alabama recently before moving into an appeal for making last year's tax cuts permanent.
The economy is where Democrats want to make their stand.
"We're more than eager to match up our record against the folks who won't take responsibility for 2-million lost jobs, stagnant growth and trillions of dollars in 401(k) and other retirement savings losses," Democratic chairman Terry McAuliffe said recently.
The party made television commercials to drive home that point.
But in a measure of their financial state, Democrats were able to commit less than $1-million to their effort, only enough to run advertising on cable television for a day or two in the areas where Bush was campaigning.