CIA analysts keep leaders informed

McLEAN, Va. -- Jami Miscik does not like surprises.

As the CIA's top analyst, it is her job to ensure that President Bush, too, is not caught off guard by world events.

Her reports, and those from the agency's analytic corps, boil the world's events and some of its deepest secrets down to an essence that Bush and his advisers use to make fast and fundamental decisions. Much effort goes into getting it right.

"We truly are speaking truth to power," she said in an interview with the Associated Press.

Miscik, the CIA's deputy director for intelligence, leads the thousands of analysts in the agency's Directorate of Intelligence. They serve as the scholarly complement to the Directorate of Operations, which manages case officers and covert operations overseas.

Her outfit has experts in almost everything:

-- Aerospace engineers who work alongside biologists, scouring intelligence reports for clues about whether a foreign military can disperse anthrax from a Scud missile.

-- Explosives experts, who travel to terrorist attack sites to figure out what kind of bomb was used.

-- Psychologists, who study world leaders.

-- Academics, who can apply knowledge of 2,000 years of Chinese history to sort out the hidden leadership struggles in the modern Communist Party.

-- Linguists.

-- Economists.

Their findings are often accurate, but certainty is rare.

"Sometimes people just surprise you," she said. "Despite all of the reporting, all of the information that points in a certain direction, for whatever reason, the other decision gets made. You haven't had the opportunity to warn our policymakers."

That happened in 1998, when India stunned the world and tested a nuclear weapon. The CIA was criticized for not predicting it ahead of time.

But in the shadowy intelligence world, successes are almost by definition a secret, and are therefore rarely heralded. This summer it was CIA officers, including some of Miscik's analysts, who connected the dots and learned about North Korea's renewed efforts to construct nuclear weapons.

Terrorists are among the CIA's most difficult targets. Analysts who followed the affairs of nations now must track the actions of a few dozen extremists bent on killing Americans.

"We deal in a world of secrets," Miscik said. "The most valuable secrets are those that are the most highly protected. Trying to get into the plans and intentions of two or three key individuals would be quite a difficult nut to crack."

Success means linking enough pieces of disparate information to send operatives or foreign authorities after a terrorist cell, Miscik said.

CIA analysts are watching for signs that Osama bin Laden's organization is reconstituting outside of its former home of Afghanistan, Miscik said. Analysts look for money transfers, word of newly forged alliances with other extremists, and other reporting that indicates members of the group have found a safe haven.

Miscik's team also assembles the President's Daily Brief, which CIA Director George J. Tenet provides to Bush and his top advisers most mornings. In it is the CIA's take on world events, plus information on critical secrets the agency's operatives have uncovered.

Miscik acknowledged CIA analyses sometimes put the agency at odds with officials elsewhere in the government.

"We may not be bringing a message they want to hear," she said.

CIA information also often ends up a part of a national debate, sometimes tailored by politicians to support their own views.

In recent weeks, hawkish administration officials have highlighted intelligence reports, some of questionable reliability, that suggest links between Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's government and bin Laden's al-Qaida network.

At the same time, antiwar senators disclosed selected elements of CIA analyses that say Saddam would use his chemical and biological weapons only if he was backed into a corner by a U.S.-led war.

"We present the analysis exactly as we see it," Miscik said. "We have no policy agenda."

In Miscik's view, the best analysts are not just able to make connections. They also can communicate their ideas to leaders with a thousand other things on their minds.

"There's a fair amount of creativity required -- that sounds weird when it comes to intelligence -- in terms of how to present this information in a way that a policymaker can absorb it, digest it, and take the key themes from it," she said.

Born in Chicago and raised in Southern California, Miscik planned a career as an economist but a lousy job market led her to the CIA in 1983. After holding several key positions, she took over as the agency's top analyst in May.

She spoke to the AP as part of events marking the 50th anniversary of the Directorate of Intelligence, which is also conducting a recruiting push to expand its numbers by 25 percent.

Already, a new crop of analysts has started work at the agency. Many are about age 30, have graduate degrees and could be making more money in the private sector, Miscik said, but are drawn by the chance to serve their country.

There are also other benefits.

"There is a bit of mystique about working at the CIA," she said.

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