State: Bewildering ballot measures

Come Wednesday morning, a newly elected governor and lawmakers could wake up to a daunting task: Find a way to pay for the most ambitious class size reduction plan in the nation.

Throughout the political season, hyperbole, simplistic sound bites and scare tactics about Amendment 9 have been plentiful. Sincere and specific proposals, though, have been in short supply.

But if the amendment passes -- and it appears that it will, despite an erosion of support -- state leaders will have to come up with a way to make it work.

"The day of reckoning is upon us. I believe this is going to pass," said Republican Sen. Ken Pruitt, the Senate's finance and taxation chairman, who opposes Amendment 9. "We need to put everything on the table and come up with a solution. We can't ignore this thing."

Pruitt and fellow Sen. Ron Klein, a Democrat, recently crafted memorandums offering possible solutions. The two South Florida lawmakers disagree on the amendment. Klein will vote yes, Pruitt no. They disagree on how to pay for it. They even disagree about the seriousness of the other's proposal.

Still, their memos help define the parameters for the coming debates if voters decide on Tuesday to limit class size in the public schools.

Neither Bill McBride nor Gov. Jeb Bush has offered a plan to pay for Amendment 9.

McBride has his own scaled-down version of the initiative with a plan to pay for it. But it falls short of Amendment 9. He plans to vote for the initiative but refuses to say how he would pay for it.

Bush has offered a $2.8-billion plan to build 12,000 new classrooms by bonding telecommunications tax revenue. There is no guarantee that the plan would reduce class sizes. Bush opposes Amendment 9 and says he has no obligation to detail how he would pay for it beyond saying it would require a tax increase and cuts in services.

The governor has raised the specter of higher sales taxes and the possibility of a state income tax. A coalition formed in opposition to the amendment warns that the amendment could mean no raises for teachers and cuts in other education programs.

That's the sort of thing that Sen. Kendrick Meek, the chief advocate of the amendment, labels as a scare tactic. But Meek has not offered a specific plan to pay for the initiative, either.

The state has estimated that the class size initiative would cost as much as $27.5-billion over the eight-year phase-in period. That would pay to hire additional teachers and build more classrooms.

Estimates run as low as $6.6-billion. Regardless of the cost estimate, the initiative is sure to cost the state billionsof dollars, forcing lawmakers to rethink the budget.

Some ideas that have been floated involve tax increases -- a one-cent increase in the state sales tax would raise $2.9-billion a year -- or eliminating tax breaks that amount to billions over the same eight-year period. Both appear unlikely given the antitax mood of the Republican-controlled Legislature.

Sen. Klein's plan doesn't rely on tax increases. Instead, it leans heavily on the strategy that the state -- and the typical homeowner -- uses when it has a major bill to pay: borrowing money. An example is the state's 1997 decision to bond lottery money to raise $2.7-billion for school construction. It gave the state money to work with and the ability to pay it off over time.

Klein starts out borrowing an idea from Bush, recommending that the state bond the growth in the telecommunications tax, raising $2.8-billion for school construction. Klein also would bond $200-million in lottery funds, producing another $2.4-billion.

The senator says his plan produces about $7.6-billion. That's higher than the perhaps low-ball cost estimate of $6.6-billion, which assumes that all new classrooms are built on existing school sites and that all new teachers have bachelor's degrees only.

Klein defends his plan as an honest attempt to pay for the class size initiative.

"I'm just getting tired of the lies and misleading numbers," Klein said. "If the public thinks this is important, we need to find a way to pay for it."

Pruitt says Klein's "numbers don't add up."

"I appreciate him trying to come up with a solution," Pruitt said. "But all that money has already been accounted for."

Pruitt said if it were as easy as Klein suggests, the state would not have resorted to contortions in the last two budgets, when lawmakers used money that might not be available next year to pay recurring expenses.

In a memo to Senate President-designate Jim King, Pruitt wrote of his concerns over Amendment 9: "There is no way for us to come up with $3-billion (for the first year) without raising additional revenues, implementing massive shifts in appropriations or requiring local school districts to assume an increased share of their normal operating costs."

Though he doesn't endorse any of the following ideas, Pruitt wrote that the state might be forced to eliminate the sales tax exemption on groceries and prescription drugs, increase the rental car surcharge by $1 a day or shift money out of the popular Bright Futures merit-based scholarship program into the class size reduction effort.

Klein characterized Pruitt's suggestions as more scare tactics.

"The idea of doing away with Bright Futures -- who's going to vote for that?" Klein said. "I'm not going to vote for that."

It's unlikely that either senator's plans will provide a neat blueprint. But they illustrate the kinds of options lawmakers will have to consider if the amendment passes. Ultimately the solution will likely include some bonding, as Klein has suggested, and shifting of funds, as Pruitt suggested.

If Amendment 9 passes, lawmakers will have little time to craft a plan to pay for it. The amendment calls for incremental progress beginning in the 2003-04 fiscal year. The state then has eight years to reach the goal of capping class size at 18 for prekindergarten through grade 3, 22 in grades 4 through 8, and 25 in high school.

"I think you're going to see a fundamental change of tune when this passes," said Damien Filer, spokesman for the Coalition to Reduce Class Size. "Suddenly it's not going to cost as much, and -- what do you know -- we're not going to have to cut Bright Futures."

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Lucy Morgan

From the Times state desk