Victory for Bush, but with a hitch

This may seem incredible to say after months and months of campaigning: The debate over Florida education really is just getting started.

Consider: Florida voters on Tuesday returned Gov. Jeb Bush to office with a resounding vote of confidence and simultaneously ordered him to change his most prized ideas about public education.

So what's the governor going to do about class sizes now that the Florida Constitution has been amended -- despite his strong protests and dire warnings -- to require smaller ones? So what's he going to do about the state's universities now that voters have told him to reinstate a version of the Board of Regents, the dismantling of which was one of his proudest achievements?

So how's the popular governor going to pay for such moves -- after he's declared the class size amendment to be about as bad as an income tax? He likened its cost to a black cloud that will "block out the sun."

In an unguarded moment, he told some friends he had "devious plans" to deal with this very scenario. He later apologized and denied such plans. But now we'll really have a debate about education, one that includes serious price tags and serious choices.

"He faces an impossible financial situation trying to fund that," said former Republican state Sen. Curt Kiser, noting that even without that class size amendment Florida faced serious budget challenges.

So how does a governor with a passion for cutting taxes and strong ideas about education lead Florida on a class-size initiative he doesn't believe in? Some options:

Bite the bullet. After fighting ferociously against efforts earlier this year to reform Florida's tax structure, Bush could start peeling away sales tax exemptions to find the money. It's the will of the people, he would sigh, as he also looked at programs to cut.

Stonewall. Voters in 1998 amended the state Constitution to require high-speed rail for Florida. The first shovelful of dirt has yet to be turned. Bush could simply delay any substantive action on the amendment, while pursuing his own far more modest plan to build more classrooms.

Newly elected U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek, D-Miami, isn't about to let that happen. Meek pushed the amendment and will continue campaigning for its implementation. Look for lawsuits.

Repeal. The governor could tinker around the edges, and fight off lawsuits and lawmakers nervous about ignoring the amendment. Then he could try hard to kill it in two years. He could offer the choice of smaller class sizes or raising sales taxes and cutting nursing home programs.

In a rare campaign misstep, Bush in an unguarded moment quipped that he had some "devious plans" for the initiative if it passed.

"We might want to consider having a full, have another look at it with the full monty," he said, unaware a reporter had accompanied several lawmakers into his office. "You know, the full costs and benefits, so that consumers, voters, will have the full ramifications of this thing, including which tax will go up."

Even without the class size amendment, Bush's campaign promise to build 12,000 new classrooms and his pledge to spend more on the state's child protection services, the state already faces a budget hole of at least $1-billion.

"It becomes a huge crisis for the Republican Party, especially because Jeb made taxes practically the cornerstone of his campaign," said outgoing Republican state Sen. Don Sullivan of Seminole, referring to how Bush pummelled McBride as a tax-and-spender.

Republicans will now control not only the governor's mansion and the legislature, but also every seat on the Cabinet. Republicans picked up two newly drawn congressional seats, and knocked out Democratic incumbent Karen Thurman. Even Attorney General Bob Butterworth, a Democratic icon, appeared headed for a loss in his campaign for state senate.

But there's an irony to the shellacking Florida Democrats took Tuesday. They lost even as they largely succeeded in shaping the campaign debate.

More than anything, the contest between Bush and Bill McBride campaign was about education spending.

As loudly as he touted accountability, he boasted about his education spending increases -- the biggest of which came in his election-year budget. He belatedly embraced a prekindergarten ballot initiative; he talked about the need to raise teacher pay; and he eventually proposed a modest plan to reduce class sizes, after months of downplaying the importance of it.

"He campaigns in the middle and governs to the right," said Buddy Shorstein, U.S. Sen. Bob Graham 's adviser and former chief of staff. "The Democrats set the agenda in the campaign, but they couldn't close the deal."

That's because Bush turned the debate about school spending into a debate about tax increases. McBride never recovered.

You wouldn't know it from Tuesday's lopsided results, but Florida is the same politically divided state that produced the contested 2000 presidential election. The trouncing of Democrats is less a reflection of Florida's philosophical leanings than of the Florida Democratic Party's impotence and Jeb Bush 's personal appeal.

Floridians may not always love the governor's policies, but their trust and affection for the man is undeniable.

-- Adam C. Smith can be reached at (727)893-8241 or adam@sptimes.com.

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