Voter News Service abandons exit poll plans

The operation was revamped after the 2000 presidential election fiasco. But officials said they couldn't trust the accuracy of the poll's results.

©Associated Press
November 6, 2002

NEW YORK -- Voter News Service abandoned its state and national exit poll plans for election night, saying it could not guarantee the accuracy of the analysis that media organizations use to help explain why people voted as they did.

A nation accustomed to Internet banking, drive-through dining and 24-hour live news coverage, was suddenly stripped of instant gratification. Two years after George W. Bush's court-decided election, politicians and journalists hungry for their first chance to sample the voters' mood in the wake of Sept. 11, a limping economy and murmurs of war -- had to wait. And, without the benefit of exit poll surveys, political analysts were left guessing about voters' hopes and fears.

VNS also had problems Tuesday night with a separate operation for counting the actual vote. CBS and NBC complained the votes were coming in slowly, and they were relying on a backup operation provided by the Associated Press.

The company did have limited information from the exit poll surveys that gave its members guidance in projecting winners for individual races.

The exit poll failure was a major setback for VNS -- a consortium consisting of ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox and the AP. VNS had completely rebuilt its system in response to the 2000 election, when television networks twice used its information to make wrong calls in the decisive Florida vote for the presidential election.

"We're disappointed that VNS wasn't able to provide this material," said Jonathan Wolman, senior vice president of the Associated Press. "Polling place interviews provide an invaluable glimpse at voters' mood and priorities."

As in the past, AP was calling election winners in a process that involves an analysis of the actual vote returns, Wolman said. "Our emphasis is on accuracy, and we're confident we'll provide a strong service tonight."

In addition, AP reporters around the country conduct their own interviews with voters on Election Day to gather quotes to enrich their stories. This material, though not a scientific survey, helps give readers some insight into how individual voters made their decisions.

The VNS exit poll was of particular importance to broadcasters and 19 newspapers, including the New York Times, Washington Post and USA Today, that had contracted with the consortium to receive that information to report on Election Day trends.

Senate Minority Leader Trent Lott, speaking on CNN, said he had heard some exit poll results before polls closed Tuesday.

"In some instances I liked what I was seeing, and others I didn't," Lott said. "But we found out in 2000 they can be misleading. And if it's not scientifically accurate, they should dispense with it and try to come up with a better system for the future."

VNS's separate vote-counting operation started the evening well, but an automated system overloaded and caused delays, said Ted Savaglio, VNS executive director.

"It's functioning and it's running, but it's not running at peak efficiency," he said.

In response to the 2000 problems, VNS agreed to provide to all of its members other vote counts conducted by the AP. CBS and NBC said they were using the AP numbers exclusively.

In the weeks heading up to Election Day, VNS was never able to work out the bugs in the portion of the exit poll used to glean detailed information on how people felt about issues and how certain groups voted.

VNS said the exit poll information was being collected but not being properly analyzed by the organization's new computer system.

VNS had other problems: Computer screens briefly froze when workers phoned in exit poll information, and more people than expected failed to call with completed questionnaires, Savaglio said.

-- Information from the New York Times was used in this report.