Can Nelson and Graham rescue state Democrats?

MORGAN

© St. Petersburg Times
published November 16, 2002

Stop the presses. We've discovered a Democrat who might run for governor and have a chance of winning!

Since Election Day, everyone has been searching the woods for a Democrat, any Democrat, who could compete against the Republican juggernaut that now rules the state.

The Democrats have spent years trying to recruit U.S. Sen. Bob Graham to come back and make a return appearance, but they've overlooked the obvious.

In 1990 there was a Democrat who desperately wanted to be governor, but he was overrun by former U.S. Sen. Lawton Chiles, who resurfaced as a candidate after retiring.

That Democrat, Bill Nelson, stayed around and ran for the next statewide office that popped up on the ballot -- treasurer and insurance commissioner. He won in 1994 and served in the office until he was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2000.

Nelson and Graham worked hard to recruit candidates during the past two years and even harder to get former U.S. Attorney General Janet Reno out of the race for governor.

Now, friends say Nelson is eyeing a return engagement for the governor's race in 2006.

Nelson says he fully intends to seek re-election to the U.S. Senate but acknowledges he's been asked to run for governor. "I told them I would probably not be interested," Nelson said this week. "I love the Senate, the work and the people."

Nelson says four years is a long time in the political world. Some supporters are convinced he'll come home and run.

How weird is it that the two Democrats viewed as likely candidates for governor are the only two left standing Nelson and Graham?

Graham was too busy enjoying his final days as part of a Senate majority to talk this week. But longtime friends say they think he won't run for governor, in part because he will be 70 in 2006.

"I don't think there is a chance in hell he'll run for governor in four years," says Samuel R. "Buddy" Shorstein, a Jacksonville CPA who served as Graham's chief of staff when he was governor and after he was elected to the U.S. Senate in 1986.

But Graham is likely to run for re-election in 2004.

A recent poll conducted by the Sayfie Review, a political Web site, saw U.S. Rep. Jim Davis of Tampa edge out Tallahassee Mayor Scott Maddox as the most likely Democratic candidate for governor in 2006. "None of the above" ranked third.

Others in order were former state Attorney General Bob Butterworth, Graham and state Sen. Rod Smith, D-Alachua. This year's top Democrats, Bill McBride and former U.S. Attorney General Janet Reno were dead last.

Graham says he'll make a decision on running for re-election to the Senate in December.

Nelson always wanted to be governor. He left a safe seat in Congress to run in 1990 only to be overrun by the Chiles stampede.

On Tuesday, the Republicans who won such a resounding victory will gather in Tallahassee to reorganize the Legislature. The Tampa Bay area will have no shortage of high-ranking representation this year. The incoming House speaker is Johnnie Byrd, a Plant City Republican. Although incoming Senate President Jim King is from Jacksonville, he grew up in St. Petersburg and will give a lot of power to Sen. Tom Lee, R-Brandon, and new Sen. Dennis Jones, R-Treasure Island.

Lee, who is slated to be rules chairman this year, is likely to become Senate president in 2004. Jones, a longtime friend of King's and former House member, is likely to be majority leader.

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