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Open crime cases pile up
By LEANORA MINAI, Times Staff Writer
ST. PETERSBURG -- It was broad daylight, in a dry cleaners, five doors from a police substation. Beth Swanson waited on customers and watched a soap opera while, in an adjoining room, customers washed their clothes. Suddenly, someone walked into the Coquina Key storefront, beat Mrs. Swanson and left with a few hundred dollars. Thirty-three months later, the killing remains unsolved, one of seven open homicides from 2000. "The police have done a very good job," said Mrs. Swanson's brother, Jim Myers, 43, of Treasure Island. "But at the same time, we realize they're stretched. I think their resources are limited." The crime rate in St. Petersburg, as in most of the country, has been steadily declining in recent years. But the rate of arrests in St. Petersburg is declining far faster. While crime dropped by 10 percent from 1998 to 2001, the rate of arrests dropped 24 percent. What's more, the percentage of major crimes that are "cleared" -- resolved by arrest or by factors such as death or an unwillingness to press charges -- has dipped below state and national averages. "It's a concern," police Chief Chuck Harmon said. "We want to strive to make those numbers go up -- not down." Harmon said the city still performs about as well as other cities its size across the country, and that the decline in case clearances is a national trend. Still, St. Petersburg's situation bears further study, especially for a police department having trouble retaining officers. In the past five years, an average of nearly 30 officers a year have resigned from the 539-member force. Why are police solving fewer crimes? Police and criminologists cite an array of reasons, including staffing, tougher cases and shifting police priorities. "We're talking about an awful lot of variables here, and my attitude is that simplistic answers are always wrong," said John Firman, research director for the International Association of Chiefs of Police. "You've got to take a look at every possible variable." A key measureTen days before Christmas, LaDonna Kinney walked out of the Wal-Mart on Tyrone Boulevard and could not find her Saturn in the parking lot. She was one of 2,062 people who reported a vehicle stolen last year. Police found the car and dusted for fingerprints, but no match was found. No arrest was made. Only 237 auto thefts were cleared last year. "It bothers me there was no arrest made," said Kinney, 32, a day care teacher from Seminole. "There were fingerprints all over the place. I'm sure they could have found somebody." Crime statistics often are misleading and confusing. Not every crime is reported to police. Not every crime is solved. Not every police agency interprets its crime statistics the same way. But law enforcement experts and criminologists often cite clearance rates as one of the key measures of a police department's performance. "They measure not just the ability of police to do their job of tracking down bad guys, but also the kind of bad guys they're dealing with," said James Alan Fox, a nationally respected criminologist at Northeastern University in Boston. Cleared, in police parlance, does not mean convicted, or even prosecuted. It indicates only that a person was charged. Last year, St. Petersburg lagged behind Tampa and Miami in its clearance rate on violent crimes, which include homicide, aggravated assaults, forcible sex and robberies. Of 4,366 violent offenses reported in St. Petersburg last year, police cleared 1,379, or about 32 percent, according to the Florida Department of Law Enforcement. The national average was 46.2 percent; the state average, 50.1 percent. Police tend to solve more violent crimes than property offenses, such as burglary or other thefts. More resources are devoted to violent crimes, which also tend to yield more witnesses and forensic evidence. Because violent crimes are more likely to be solved, the clearance rate for property crimes is much lower. St. Petersburg last year had 16,158 reported property crimes -- burglaries, larcenies and motor vehicle thefts. Of those, police cleared 2,209 cases, or 13.7 percent. The national average was 16.2 percent; the state average, 17.8 percent. "It's disheartening," said William Ruefle, a criminologist at the University of South Florida in St. Petersburg. "A typical person would almost find it shocking, but it's a reality. The police don't catch a lot of people." Law enforcement officials say these statistics can be misleading because one arrest, particularly in auto thefts and burglaries, can clear a dozen cases. "The dilemma in interpreting clearance rates is the degree of aggressiveness of police in working to clear up things," said Alfred Blumstein, a criminologist at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh. "How fastidious are they in making sure that burglars did the burglaries they're clearing up?" 'No clue. Nothing.'Claudia Eanes was locking the door of the Central Avenue tanning salon where she worked when a bullet sailed across the street and struck her in the back of the head. Her slaying on that March night is one of 11 unsolved homicides from 2001. "They can find all these other killers, but they can't solve this one," said Eanes' sister, Sherry MacKay, 31, of Safety Harbor. "They don't have a weapon. Nothing. No clue. Nothing." Such cases are becoming increasingly common. Along with staffing problems and changing police priorities, the growth of more complex criminal cases are among the primary reasons for declining clearance rates nationwide, experts say. In the Eanes case, no witnesses came forward, and police found little forensic evidence. "A lot of crime nationally has shifted over the past 10 to 15 years in terms of younger offenders and more 'stranger' offenders, which just make crimes that much more difficult to solve," said Fox, the Northeastern University professor. A year with more stranger-on-stranger killings results in a lower clearance rate. A year with more domestic-related homicides lends itself to a higher clearance rate because the suspect is usually known, and more likely to be arrested. Clearance rates also can be affected by changes within a department's investigative units, or by broader changes within a department. "A turnover in the top management impacts morale and creates uncertainty and always diverts attention, causing some drop in productivity," said Michael Seigel, a law professor who specializes in police issues at the University of Florida. St. Petersburg is short 31 patrol officers, and several investigative units also have vacancies. "If an investigative component is understaffed, then it's going to be harder for them to maintain their closure rate," said Tony Narr, director of management education at the Police Executive Research Forum in Washington, D.C. But Harmon said staffing has no bearing on clearance rates. "It depends on how much physical evidence you get," he said. To explain the drop in case clearances, Harmon and his supervisors pointed to a more informed offender. Television shows like CSI: Crime Scene Investigation tip off the public on how to get away with crimes. For crimes such as auto theft, the chief pointed some blame at car manufacturers for not making it tougher to steal cars. Further, Harmon said, residents have not complained to him about unresolved cases. "I've got a feeling that by a lack of complaints that they think we're doing a pretty good job," Harmon said. "Could we do better? Always." -- Times researchers Cathy Wos and Kitty Bennett and computer-assisted reporting specialist Connie Humburg contributed to this report. Leanora Minai can be reached at minai@sptimes.com or (727) 893-8406.
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