Hurricane season spares Florida

The 2002 hurricane season ends with the state only brushed by tropical storms. Next season could be different, a forecaster warns.

By WILLIAM R. LEVESQUE, Times Staff Writer
© St. Petersburg Times
published November 30, 2002

Florida escaped the 2002 hurricane season that closes today unscathed by major storms thanks to some blind luck and a major helping of El Nino.

No hurricanes made landfall in the state this year and just two tropical storms, Hanna and Edouard, affected the state. Rip currents caused by Hanna in September were blamed for the deaths of three Florida swimmers in the Panhandle.

No hurricane has made landfall in Florida since Hurricane Irene in 1999.

"It's been fairly quiet for us for a while now," James Franklin, a hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, said Friday. "I don't worry about people being lulled into a false sense of security, at least not in South Florida. A lot of people still remember Andrew."

But thousands of people also have moved to South Florida since Hurricane Andrew hit in 1992.

"My concern is the longer we go without one, the harder it is to keep people interested, keep their attention," Palm Beach County Emergency Management director Bill O'Brien said. "Just because we didn't get one this year doesn't give us a pass for next year."

Franklin said good luck played a role in keeping the state hurricane-free this year. El Nino didn't hurt, either.

El Nino is characterized by an abnormally warm sea surface in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean. This results in increased evaporation and rising air currents that can affect the winds overhead that steer the movement of weather.

Historically, El Nino suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity, though forecasters felt earlier this year that it probably would not be strong enough to affect hurricane activity this season.

"El Nino tends to limit storm activity in the deep tropics," Franklin said. "Storms that come out of the tropical Atlantic tend to be the most devastating for Florida."

Overall, the season's four hurricanes were the fewest since 1997.

Hurricane forecaster William Gray of Colorado State University said he believes El Nino probably will be gone by June 1, when the 2003 season starts.

In all, the season produced 12 tropical storms, two more than average, and four hurricanes -- two less than average. All four hurricanes -- Gustav, Isidore, Kyle and Lili -- developed in less than a month, between Sept. 8 and Oct. 4.

Despite El Nino, more northern tropical storms were plentiful. Six came ashore in the United States.

Lili was the first hurricane to make landfall in the United States in three years when it slammed into Louisiana Oct. 2 as a Category 2 storm with top sustained winds of 110 mph. It was the year's deadliest and most powerful hurricane.

The storm first hit St. Vincent in the eastern Caribbean, burying a mother and her three children in a mudslide. Lili took four more lives in Jamaica.

A swing north across the Gulf of Mexico saw Lili grow, with top winds reaching a 145 mph. It weakened significantly before hitting Louisiana.

Gray will issue his 2003 hurricane forecast on Dec. 6. He's expecting storm activity to kick up again, as it has most years since the mid 1990s.

"We think we'll be back in the era of six of the last eight years," he said. "We think we're in an upswing."

-- Times wires were used in this report.

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