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Warming may open Northwest Passage
By DAVID BALLINGRUD, Times Staff Writer
A frozen ocean at the top of the world is melting. The Northwest Passage, a promising but eternally impassable seaway that has tempted and enticed explorers and fortune seekers for centuries, is cracking open as the world grows warmer. Ships could be sailing its 4,000 mile length within a dozen years, making a faster, cheaper sea link between Europe, the U.S. and Asia, and bringing about the biggest change in global shipping patterns since the construction of the Panama Canal. "If the Earth is warming, if the ice is really retreating, then the specter of Arctic development is looming," said Lawson Brigham, deputy executive director of the U.S. Arctic Research Commission in Alexandria, Va. "People are asking, can we get there? Can we do it economically? Can we do it safely? Those are the megaton questions." The new waterway would create new military vulnerabilities and opportunities, too, and the U.S. and other nations are already planning operations in an ice-free Arctic Ocean. Increased ship transit through the ice -- especially if the cargo was oil -- also would greatly increase the risk of environmental damage in an otherwise pristine part of the world. It might also threaten a long-secure people, the Inuit, who live in small villages along the route. Standing guard at the doorway to all this change is Canada, which claims historic title to the Northwest Passage as an internal waterway. "Land, sea and ice have been inhabited as a unified entity by Canadian aboriginal peoples since time immemorial," said Rob Huebert, a specialist on Arctic issues and associate director of the Center for Military and Strategic Studies at Alberta's University of Calgary. Much of the rest of the world, however, notably the U.S. and the European Union, disagrees, calling the passage an "international strait," according to a 1946 international court definition. Canada has an ally in Russia, which asserts a similar claim over its Arctic waters, called the Northern Sea Route, or the Northeast Passage. That part of the Arctic Ocean has even greater potential to open in coming years, said Brigham of the Arctic Research Commission. If the ice there continues to recede, Siberia's vast natural resources -- copper, nickel, timber and oil, to name a few -- would more easily reach world markets, he said. The U.S. also disputes the Russian claim to title. In the case of the Northwest Passage, the issue has produced some tough language among long-time friends. The commander of Canadian forces in the far north recently said his country may be required to use force to protect its claim. "National security, the safety of native coastal communities, and the protection of an extremely vulnerable ecology are at stake," Col. Pierre Leblanc, commander of Canada's northern military zone, told the Boston Globe. "When it comes to these, Canada can be a very tough country. We will defend our interests and our honor, with force, if necessary." While actual gunplay with Canada is unlikely, "Canadians are funny sometimes," Huebert said. "We get our backs up. In this case our interest is environmental protection, and a sense of nationalism." "Look, of course they will defend what they consider to be their territory," Brigham said, "just as we would defend Alaska against any unlawful incursion. But how they will defend it is the question. "I think it's likely they will defend it by designing some kind of regulatory system." It's not clear what will happen next. Eight nations -- Canada, the U.S., Russia, Sweden, Norway, Iceland, Denmark and Finland -- are at work on an Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, which will lay the scientific groundwork upon which to build policy. "There are a couple of hundred scientists evaluating impacts on fisheries and people," Brigham said. "No easy answers have been found yet." Computer models show more open water in the Arctic, he said, and satellite pictures show the open water lasting longer during the year. But, he said, the data is not certain. "One computer model shows open water in the Northwest Passage during summer months (by 2015), another does not," he said. "There is no question the trend is for thinning ice and for less ice," said Dr. Gunter Weller, executive director of the eight-nation ACIA. "We have lost three percent per year over the last decade," he said, "and thickness reduction is on the order of 40 percent, from an average of 3.5 meters to about 2 meters." "Whether this is long term or short term is not entirely clear," Weller said, noting that ice sometimes will pile up in some areas, making it appear thinner in others. Nevertheless, he said, other indicators -- such as air temperatures -- also reflect warming. "It's a consistent picture." The Northwest Passage winds through the islands of Canada's Arctic archipelago and along the northern coast of Alaska, linking the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The name refers to several possible routes through the vast maze of islands and water, some more navigable than others. The quest to find a way through began in the 1400s when European rulers sent expeditions westward to find a shortcut to Asia. It was understood early on that whoever controlled a shorter route to Asia would reap enormous fortune. The distance between Europe and the Far East via the Panama Canal is more than 12,000 nautical miles. The Northwest Passage would cut this to about 8,000 nautical miles, and would be especially attractive for ship owners who worry about instability in Panama, which recently took over control of the canal from the United States. Weller, the ACIA's executive director, said a number of shipping companies have begun to study use of the the Northwest Passage, but he noted there are some added costs to consider. "You need a strengthened hull to make the trip," he said, "and there are few, if any, in the U.S. inventory right now. You would also need some kind of observing system" to locate and track dangerous ice. Canada is likely to feel internal pressure to make use of an open Northwest Passage, too. The area is known to contain important reserves of oil, gas, diamonds and gold. And there are other benefits, at least in the eyes of some. Coastal areas along the route would benefit economically with the addition of port facilities and warehouses to accommodate the many ships that would travel offshore. "But I have traveled the passage," Weller said, "and I have talked to the Inuit. They are very worried about what an oil spill would mean to their way of life." Even if the Northwest Passage does open, use would not begin right away, said Huebert of the University of Calgary. 'If will take several years of good conditions to make shipping companies and insurance companies willing to take the chance," he said. "But eventually, a shipping company will make an assessment that it's safe and profitable and they, and that company's government, will push the issue. "For now, though, people are treating the issue like ostriches, hoping it will go away."
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