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© St. Petersburg Times, published December 3, 2002
Late last month, a U.S. Air Force plane landed at Haiti's international airport on the outskirts of the capital, Port-au-Prince.
It didn't take long for rumors to fly that the plane had come to whisk President Jean-Bertrand Aristide out of the country. As it turned out, the aircraft's real mission was delivering Thanksgiving turkeys to U.S. Embassy personnel.
Amusing though it was, the rumor reflected a serious change of mood that seems to be sweeping the country.
Recent protests, unprecedented in their targeting of the Aristide government, have led to speculation about his possible ouster. Several people have been killed and scores injured in clashes between antigovernment protesters and Aristide loyalists in several cities.
U.S. officials are growing increasingly uneasy over the rising political tensions, fearing that a major outbreak of violence could spark an exodus. While regime collapse is not considered imminent, Washington is anxious to avoid a repeat of the 1993-94 crisis, when thousands of Haitian boat people were picked up and detained at the U.S. military base in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. The base currently has its hands full with some 600 terrorism suspects.
Analysts warn that Washington is underestimating the state of political chaos in the hemisphere's poorest nation, where the vast majority of people live in extreme poverty.
They point out that the U.S. Coast Guard has intercepted an increased number of Haitian boat people. Late last month a boatload of more than 200 Haitian migrants managed to make it the shores of Miami, resulting in a massive roundup by police and immigration authorities.
"It has the look of the beginning of the unraveling," said James Morrell, director of the Haiti Democracy Project, a Washington group that is critical of both Aristide and U.S. policy. "Aristide has lost his mystique and he can't mobilize the masses the way he used to."
Aristide, a former priest who became a hero to the poor, is less than halfway into his second term in office. During a previous administration in the early 1990s he was removed after less than a year by a military coup, and was only restored to power after a U.S.-led invasion.
His government is locked in a bitter feud with political opponents over disputed results of a 2000 election. The political stalemate has resulted in the freezing of an estimated $500-million in foreign aid.
Critics accuse Aristide's Lavalas Family party of creating a climate of fear, including putting down antigovernment demonstrations with the help of criminal gangs in the slums with loose progovernment political ties.
One group operating in Gonaives, known as the Cannibal Army, is headed by Amiot Metayer, who escaped from prison in August after supporters drove a bulldozer through a jail wall. Since then police have made no effort to rearrest him, despite repeated requests from human rights groups.
Political and economic frustrations are reaching a breaking point. Living conditions have never been worse. According to a U.N. survey the average life expectancy in Haiti is only 53 years. The yearly income for an entire family is less than what it takes to sustain one person.
The latest round of violence came after a series of antigovernment demonstrations, including students. In the largest protest, some 15,000 people marched peacefully in the northern city of Cap Haitien. Protesters shouted "Aristide we are exhausted" and carried homemade posters that read, "Down with Lavalas Repression."
Morrell and others are critical of Washington for not doing enough to rebuild Haiti after military rule ended in 1994. "What we have is a fortress mentality. But it's ridiculous to think you can sit there behind your Coast Guard and hope you can push away this problem that is so huge and so near."
The Bush administration is supporting efforts by the Organization of American States to resolve the political crisis. Despite some progress, time may be running out.
"If things are let go too long it will be impossible to retrieve them," said OAS assistant secretary general Luigi Einaudi. "The state has been allowed to deteriorate so badly."