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Consider the opposition before choosing starters for playoffs

With every league's playoffs in full swing, the stakes become higher with each decision on whom to play.

There are obvious no-brainers, like Priest Holmes and Ricky Williams and Rich Gannon. In those cases, the defensive match-up -- an obsession these days for fantasy players -- doesn't matter.

But there are more head scratchers than no-brainers. Take last week, and Michael Vick.

Vick is always a play, but against the Bucs defense? Chances are, 90 percent of Vick owners played him anyway, though the more astute players hesitated because of that matchup.

If I recall correctly, in this space last week, Vick owners were warned not to play him, and he ended up with a miserable game and was a killer particularly for owners whose playoffs started last week.

The "favorable matchup" is no guarantee, but at this moment, someone is walking around your office muttering, "Should I play Chad Pennington against Chicago, Tommy Maddox against Carolina or Peyton Manning against Cleveland?"

Here's some pointers to get the most favorable matchup this week:

Quarterback: Brian Griese goes against Kansas City (league-high 276 passing yards allowed a game), Drew Bledsoe gets San Diego (regarded as a good defense but 31st in the league with 264 yards allowed per game), Tom Brady could add to the 26 touchdowns Tennessee has allowed, Brad Johnson is on fire and meets lighter fluid Detroit (250 yards a game), and even Jake Delhomme is a possible play against Minnesota's horrendous defense (263 yards, 26 touchdowns).

And obviously, receivers from these teams make excellent plays.

Running back: Warrick Dunn or T.J. Duckett, depending on who starts, will go off (against Seattle's wretched run defense -- 168 yards allowed a game, by far worst in the league), LaDainian Tomlinson is a lock for 100-plus (against Buffalo), and Curtis Martin and Corey Dillon will have big weeks (against Chicago and Jacksonville, respectively).

As for the defenses, Philadelphia is licking its chops with rookie Patrick Ramsey set to start for Washington, the Colts will force Tim Couch to throw and that's always a good thing, and the Jets should feast on whatever limp-armed quarterback the Bears trot out.

WORTH THE RISK: Because tight ends are practically useless in fantasy football -- unless you have Tony Gonzalez -- taking a chance of Oakland rookie Doug Jolley could be one of the lesser risks for those dying to take one. If he catches 104 yards worth of passes as he did Sunday, though, it could make the difference in a tight game.

LET GO: Those hanging on to Troy Hambrick can let go.

Though conventional thinking had Dallas phasing out Emmitt Smith in favor of the former Pasco High star, it appears to have been hasty. Smith has four touchdowns the past six weeks and has another game against Washington in the final week, the same Redskins he torched for 144 yards on Thanksgiving.

LET GO, PART II: Bench Marshall Faulk for the rest of the season. The Rams would be smart to limit the injury-riddled back's carries, which could mean big numbers for Lamar Gordon if he starts against Arizona.

And owners of Stephen Davis should be nervous. Now that Washington coach Steve Spurrier will go with Ramsey the rest of the season, the Redskins might forget about Davis. Consider any of the Washington receivers.

ONE WEEK SHORT?: Many fantasy leagues started their playoffs last week to avoid having their championship decided in Week 17, the fear being that many top players will rest for the playoffs.

But last year, only Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay and Philadelphia really mailed it in the last week. Those who will decide championships in the last week probably need not worry.

With the Bucs, Eagles, Packers and 49ers all chasing homefield advantage, and 10 of 16 AFC teams with seven or eight wins and still very much alive for the playoffs, it doesn't appear there will be any rest for the big fantasy point producers.

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