Americans worry about war, economy

WASHINGTON -- Americans are approaching the new year with an abundance of caution, an Associated Press poll found.

Two out of three Americans believe it's prudent to hold off on more tax cuts, for example, a centerpiece of President Bush's domestic policy agenda, according to the poll.

They also are cautious about their personal spending yet somewhat optimistic their financial situation will improve.

On the international front, the poll found people wary of a war with Iraq and much more likely to view Osama bin Laden and his al-Qaida network as threats than Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.

"It's a scary new year," said Joanne Arriola, a 62-year-old retiree from a utility company in Butte, Mont.

She has seen her retirement fund reduced sharply by the troubled economy, worries about the effects of a war in Iraq and is convinced that war will return to America.

"When the war starts, it will start here, too," Arriola said. "I think that once we're in the war, we're going to see something on our soil."

Two-thirds said they were worried that war with Iraq would increase chances of a terror attack in the United States, according to the poll conducted by ICR/International Communications Research of Media, Pa.

On economics, even most Republicans said it would be better to hold off on tax cuts to avoid deeper deficits. The White House is putting together tax cuts that could total $300-billion. The plan would feature lower taxes on shareholders' dividends, accelerate the 2001 tax cuts for all but the wealthiest Americans and provide new depreciation breaks for businesses.

"My husband and I decided to pay off all our debts," said Julia Kerner, 37, a pharmacy technician from Frederick, Md., "and I think it's better for the government to wait on more tax cuts. They are a quick fix, but they start undermining the income coming in to support this or that program."

Almost half, 44 percent, said they expect their family's financial situation will be better a year from now. That's a more optimistic view of the future than a year ago, when a third felt that way.

Republicans were more optimistic than Democrats and young adults significantly more optimistic than older people.

But if many people are expecting the economy to improve, they're also watching their spending more carefully. In the poll, 44 percent said they were now more cautious about what they spend than they had been, while half have not changed spending habits. That's up from 30 percent who said they were cautious about spending in the spring of 2000, before the nation's economic bubble began to deflate.

Women had a more cautious outlook than men, blacks more cautious than whites.

The economic uneasiness was evident even though public support for President Bush remains strong in polls generally, especially his performance on fighting terrorists.

Bush already has given the go-ahead to double the 50,000 U.S. troop deployment in the Persian Gulf region in early January for possible war with Iraq, according to administration officials.

Women were more likely than men, 40 percent to 26 percent, to say they worry a great deal about the increased threat of attacks in case of war.

The poll of 1,008 adults was taken Dec. 13-17 and has an error margin of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

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