Israeli vote presents two stark choices

JERUSALEM -- An upset by challenger Amram Mitzna no longer seems impossible in Israel's elections two weeks from now, thanks to a corruption scandal that has weakened Ariel Sharon and his Likud Party.

This has given new meaning to the choice facing Israelis between Sharon's policy of trying to crush the Palestinian uprising and Mitzna's vow to leap back into peace talks with Yasser Arafat.

The prime minister will not be chosen on election day, Jan. 28. With 15 parties likely to win seats in the 120-member Knesset, it will probably take weeks of negotiations before either Sharon or -- less likely, the Labor Party's Mitzna -- forms a majority coalition. That's a change from the last three elections, when Israelis elected their prime minister directly.

When Sharon called early elections two months ago, he seemed assured of victory, but his campaign has become mired in allegations of corruption ranging from vote-buying to a $1.5-million loan from a friend to help repay illegal campaign funds.

Mitzna proposes an about-face from Sharon's policies: a unilateral withdrawal of soldiers and settlers from the Gaza Strip and a renewal of peace talks over the West Bank with Arafat, whom Sharon has pushed aside.

Mitzna, like Sharon a retired general, said that even as a soldier he favored negotiations. "When I was in uniform, I said you cannot win against the will of 3-million people just by military measures," Mitzna said.

Critics say Mitzna would only embolden Palestinian radicals by proving terrorism pays. And the Palestinians have not explained how they would rein in militants after claiming for two years they are powerless because Israel has destroyed their security services.

Sharon's main attraction has been his grandfatherly image and ability to project calm, which is why the corruption charges have caused so much damage.

"The scandal brings home again how corrupt and unprofessional current leaders are," said Michael Zingelshuher, who bolted Likud for the centrist Shinui Party. "If our leaders are not serious or trustworthy, why do they deserve my vote?"

Polls this week show the right-wing bloc of parties winning a narrow majority of 63 seats. Likud itself made a slight recovery from the week before, winning 32 seats, up from 28. But such a coalition could wind up as a brief interlude to new elections, especially if the United States presses Israel to accept its "road map" to Palestinian statehood. A key partner in such a coalition would be the National Union, which opposes any concessions on the West Bank.

Sharon says he would prefer a coalition with Labor, but the center-left party said Tuesday that it would not join a Sharon-led government.

Mark Heller, a political analyst at the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, said a change of power could give the Palestinians an excuse to halt the violence. "Given the growing Palestinian realization that the intifada has led them up a blind alley, maybe what they really need is a fig leaf that could be provided by a change in the Israeli leadership," he said.

To achieve that, Mitzna must wade through choppy waters in his center-left bloc.

His biggest obstacle may be Shinui, a grouping that has backed Labor in the past but whose main concern is overturning religion-based legislation such as a ban on public transport on the Sabbath.

Polls show Shinui jumping from six seats to 17 and becoming the third-largest party. Its leader, Yosef Lapid, says the only coalition he'll back is with both Labor and Likud, without religious parties.

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