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XXXVII XTRA

printer version

Bucs' win may cut bulls loose

By HELEN HUNTLEY, Times Staff Writer

© St. Petersburg Times
published January 23, 2003


Here's reason No. 527 to cheer for the Bucs: If the Raiders win, your retirement savings could take another hit.

That's according to the Super Bowl Indicator, which holds that a victory by a team that was part of the old American Football League is bad for the stock market, while one by an old National Football League team is good for stocks.

The Raiders were original members of the AFL, and their three previous Super Bowl victories accurately predicted a down year for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

"It would clearly be bearish if the Oakland Raiders won," said Paul Macrae Montgomery, a market researcher who publishes Universal Economics in Newport News, Va. He is quick to say the indicator's success is coincidence.

The Bucs didn't come into being until after the leagues merged in 1970, but market strategist Robert Stovall said he classifies the Bucs with the old NFL teams because they are now in the National Football Conference and never played in the AFL. Stovall calls the indicator "a bit of harmless nonsense" that's nevertheless very accurate.

The indicator has an 81 percent track record. Usually the stock market goes up when the team with roots in the old NFL wins, partly because there are more such teams.

The indicator fell out of favor when it was wrong from 1999 to 2001, but last year it regained a touch of respectability as stocks tanked in the wake of the New England Patriots' win.


Back to the Super Bowl XXXVII
Today's lineup

Super Bowl XXXVII
  • John Romano: For Brad, the best days are still ahead
  • Gary Shelton: Lynch tough despite his neighborhood
  • Going on inspiration
  • Finally, absolution comes to a tearful Culverhouse heir
  • Some permanent reminders
  • Sideline: Who's going, who's staying
  • He just keeps going and going ...
  • Kickin' back: Depth beneath a quiet reserve
  • Plans still sketchy for official celebrations
  • Bucs' win may cut bulls loose
  • Nickelback geared up to shut down star-studded crew
  • Role players keep engine humming
  • High profile: Lincoln Kennedy
  • Finally, a reward for long-suffering fans
  • Practice met with excitement
  • What they're saying
  • High profile: Cosey Coleman
  • Goalpost Man ruled weirdest
  • Fan fulfills her promise with Bucs paint job
  • Nature lovers' paradise
  • Skirting peril en route to a dream
  • Brigham almost a Buc, but instead he's a Raider
  • Path to glory is long, rough for QB Gannon
  • Raiders outnumber Bucs 9-1 with Bowl rings
  • Sideline II: Bucs hope it's a sign of good things to come
  • Tickets are coveted corporate perk
  • Sports on the air: Area really enjoys its pro football
  • Letters: Super Bowl XXXVII: Keep focus on Gruden
  • Back to Top
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