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Economist: Future looks good for county growth
By JAMES THORNER, Times Staff Writer
The numbers tell it all: Pasco County's job growth is one-fourth of its population growth. That means most working-age Pasco residents -- estimated at 64,000 -- hunker down in their cars each morning for trips to workplaces in Hillsborough and Pinellas counties. But the forecast from Orlando economic adviser Stan Geberer was sunny: Helped by an improving national economy, new highways such as the Suncoast Parkway and a shortage of land in Pinellas, Pasco is poised to grow. Although most of that growth consists of single-family houses that have made Pasco a popular bedroom community, home-grown job prospects should improve if the county promotes commercial, retail and industrial growth. "Who would have thought population growth in Pasco would equal that in Pinellas?" Geberer told about 100 local business people Thursday at a luncheon at Tampa Bay Golf & Country Club. Geberer, who works for the Orlando-based consulting firm Fishkind & Associates, was the guest speaker to cap Business Development Week in Pasco. His population-vs.-job-growth statistics, which he projected on a screen using bar graphs, spoke volumes to Mary Jane Stanley, executive director of the county's Economic Development Council. Stanley has made it her cause to ensure Pasco, in the face of explosive housing growth, preserves enough land for business and industry. "Every time I see the presentations, the bar keeps getting wider," Stanley said of the dearth of jobs compared with population. "We've got to bridge that gap." Broadening his scope to take in the Florida and national economy, Geberer said low inflation and interest rates, increased computerization and high government spending has laid the framework for solid economic growth. He predicted growth could approach or surpass the late 1990s boom. "The boom is not over," Geberer said. But if Americans judge prosperity by job numbers, they might not consider the slump over for the rest of this year, Geberer said. It will take a while for the system to gear itself up. "It's not going to feel like we're out of the recession for another year or two years, perhaps," he said.
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