Lightning: Halt could hit Lightning hard

With the NHL's collective bargaining agreement set to expire Sept. 15, 2004, and with predictions that a lockout or strike could last 12 to 18 months, there is concern that small-market teams could be at risk.

Jeff Citron, a Toronto sports attorney and former associate counsel to the NHL Players Association, said loss of revenue will be the main problem. But there is an added element teams playing in nontraditional hockey markets, such as the Tampa Bay area, must overcome.

"There is a lot of speculation about what would happen if you shut down for 18 months in terms of fan interest in the game, specifically in markets that don't have a long, long history," Citron said. "Tampa has been a market that has been around for about 10 years. The question is, if fans don't see hockey for 18 months, is it going to float out of their stream of consciousness to the point where they're not going to come back?"

The concern is not lost on the Lightning.

General manager Jay Feaster said one of his motivations last summer for trading the No. 4 overall pick in the draft for wing Ruslan Fedotenko (and by permutation defenseman Brad Lukowich) was knowing "the future is now."

"This is a team that has made the playoffs one time in 10 years," Feaster said. "And with the tremendous uncertainty that we all have associated with the expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement, I felt, and I continue to feel, that it is imperative for our franchise that we have success on the ice right now and be a playoff team right now."

Feaster declined to speculate on the likelihood of a work stoppage or say if he is worried, but added, "All I can say is because of that uncertainty, I really feel that for a franchise that doesn't have an established history, and for a franchise that is in a market with so many things competing for the leisure dollar, it is imperative we have success and give our fans something to be excited about and something they want to embrace for the long term."

Not everyone agrees nontraditional markets would be harmed.

Mark Lavoie, who studies professional sports as an economics professor at the University of Ottawa, said he believes fan backlash will be much greater in Canada, where hockey is a passion but rooting for athletes who make an average $1.76-million has become troublesome.

"The people in Canada are quite angered at the players," Lavoie said. "They feel that they are out of touch with reality. People are big fans here for 30, 40 years. But 40 years ago, they knew the players were making salaries not much more than the average worker. I think if there was a prolonged walkout, it would affect the fans in Canada.

"In the South, it's just one of a number of entertainments. 'If it comes back, well, I guess we'll go back."'

Andy Zimbalist, an economics professor at Smith College in Northampton, Mass., disagreed.

"Sure it's a factor that you don't have a hockey tradition," he said. "These franchises are holding on by a string anyway. If there is a work stoppage, surely it would be a concern."

The Lightning has done well increasing its fan base since Palace Sports & Entertainment purchased the team in June 1999. When comparables are factored in (a 10-Pack, for instance, is a quarter of a season ticket), the team said it sold about 9,600 season tickets this season, a jump of 1,400.

Average home attendance also has increased, from 11,500 in 1998-99 to 16,151. But that still is just 81.7 percent of capacity at the 19,758-seat St. Pete Times Forum. And with the team sputtering lately, the average at its past five games, including division matchups against the Hurricanes and Capitals, was 14,050.

Palace Sports said it has lost an estimated $38-million since it took over. The NHL believes a salary cap would control costs and create parity, giving small-market teams a shot at a championship.

The question is how long it will take to get an agreement. "There are just so many other things that are out there for people to watch or spend their leisure hours doing," Citron said. "You have to be careful you don't lose the interest and the focus of those people."

Roy suspension coming

Left wing Andre Roy will be suspended for at least three games (and maybe as many as 10) for pushing linesman Lyle Seitz and referee Paul Stewart on Tuesday as they tried to get him off the ice after a fight with the Islanders' Eric Godard.

The brawl occurred 4:02 into the second period. Seitz had Roy in a bear hug when Roy pushed him away. He then pushed Stewart and Seitz again.

Roy was suspended for 13 games for wrestling with officials after a fight last season with the Rangers' Sandy McCarthy.

"I have nothing to say," Roy said Wednesday.

A decision from Colin Campbell, the NHL's director of hockey operations, is expected today.