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Poll shows Iorio might win without a runoff
By DAVID KARP, Times Staff Writer TAMPA -- Just one month after entering the race for Tampa mayor, former elections supervisor Pam Iorio holds a commanding lead, a St. Petersburg Times poll shows.
A telephone survey of 553 registered Tampa voters who said they will definitely vote a week from Tuesday shows Iorio with 38 percent of the vote -- nearly 30 percentage points ahead of her four opponents. Three candidates remain in a dead heat, with City Council member Bob Buckhorn getting 10 percent, business consultant Frank Sanchez 9 percent and council chairman Charlie Miranda 8 percent. Fitness author Don Ardell, who has raised no money in a quixotic bid for office, got 1 percent.
The poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, also shows a third of the registered voters interviewed haven't made up their minds. If the undecideds split the same way as those who have made a choice, Iorio would win 56 percent of the vote. Political consultant Wayne Garcia said Iorio looks "almost impossible to stop." "She is the ideal candidate," Garcia said. "She is known by everyone, has been around forever, and there is not a single (negative) thing you can hang her on." If no candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote March 4, the top two finishers move to a runoff three weeks later. Until Iorio jumped in, that seemed the likeliest outcome; polls indicated a very tight race. Now, with 11 days left before election day, Iorio's opponents have little time to stop her momentum. Tonight, the candidates will debate at Middleton High School in the only live debate televised by a network affiliate. The debate, sponsored by the Times and WTSP-Ch. 10, airs on Ch. 10 from 7 to 8 p.m. The debate is one of the few opportunities left to keep Iorio from ending the campaign early, political analysts say. They expect her opponents to go on the attack. The candidates are sniping at Iorio. In a television ad, Miranda criticizes the money Iorio spent on a voter education campaign for the new touchscreen voting machines used in the last election. He said Iorio spent the tax money to promote her candidacy. Iorio said the money was "spent wisely, (and) very successfully." The attacks don't seem to be working. Garcia said that in part is because Iorio built an image during the 2000 election recount as a fair, competent administrator. Hillsborough's election ran relatively smoothly, while elections in Palm Beach and Miami-Dade counties made Florida a national laughingstock. "She had a largely non-partisan, apolitical, political job," Garcia said. "She stayed perfectly clean without having to get into the nasty issues where no matter how you vote you make enemies." But Iorio's popularity could backfire on her if expectations become too high. If Iorio's supporters assume she will win, they might not turn out in full force. And if Iorio fails to capture 50 percent of the vote, her victory could be cast as a defeat. City elections, especially runoffs, traditionally attract few voters. Name recognition sometimes means less than a candidate's organization and get-out-the-vote effort. Iorio said Friday she's not taking anything for granted. "You always have to run like you are behind," she said. "I really won't know what the voters think until election day." Sanchez's campaign dismissed the Times poll as inaccurate because of the high number of undecided voters. "The poll is so far off of any other poll done by any of the candidates, or by any of the other news outlets, that I just have to question the results of the poll," spokesman Kevin Kalwary said. A Buckhorn campaign spokesman declined to comment. Miranda, who said he doesn't believe in polls, pointed to the 33 percent of undecided voters: "Those are my votes," he said. -- David Karp can be reached at 226-3376 or karp@sptimes.com.
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