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Cuban exiles bend toward reform
By DAVID ADAMS, Times Latin America Correspondent
Previous visits by island dissidents were low key affairs -- secret cabals in private homes and the occasional invitation-only cocktail party. Hard-line exiles have long suspected Havana dissidents to be agents of Fidel Castro. Paya was hoping to change that perception. But he could hardly have imagined the impact of his visit. Barely a month after his two-day stay, a series of opinion polls conducted among Miami's exile community show a dramatic shift from traditionally hard-line, anti-Castro thinking. In one poll, commissioned by the Miami-based Cuba Study Group, 69 percent of Cuban-Americans said that the island's dissidents were more important than exile leaders in bringing about democratic change in Cuba. Only 11 percent felt exile leaders played a bigger role. In another poll, conducted on behalf of the Miami Herald, a majority also supported dialogue with the Cuban government . Three years after suffering public humiliation and defeat in the Elian Gonzalez controversy, Cuban exiles have discovered a new political agenda, analysts say. "There is a new vision being consolidated. The center of political gravity is shifting from Miami to Havana," said Damian Fernandez, a Cuban-American scholar at Florida International University. "The turning point was the Paya visit," he added. "His ability to deliver his message had a major impact on this community. For the first time people are listening to the dissidents." The focus of the new agenda is Paya's so-called Varela Project, which seeks to use a clause in Cuba's 1976 constitution to call for a referendum on democratic reform. The Varela Project has split exile hard-liners. While most oppose it, saying it would legitimize Castro's rule, some have broken ranks. At the forefront is the Cuban American National Foundation, the wealthiest and most influential exile group, once a bastion of hard-line views. Under its chairman, millionaire Miami businessman Jorge Mas Santos, the foundation has taken the lead in the search for a post-Elian agenda. In a paid advertisement this month in the Miami Herald addressed "to the Cuban people," Mas Santos wrote that dissidents in Cuba had every right to use "whatever means, whatever opening . . . to confront the regime with its own lies." He offered dissidents the "brotherhood and respect" of fellow Cubans in Miami. Other exiles have followed suit. Last week the vice president of the Bay of Pigs Veterans Association, Jorge Garcia Rubio, quit his position in support of the Varela Project. In a public letter, he said he opposed the publication of a paid advertisement criticizing the Varela Project. Several exile groups, including the Veterans, co-signed the ad. Radio commentator Jesus Garcia says he was fired from his job at Radio Mambi, a nest of anti-Castro hard-liners, after he defended the Varela Project. "It's not that we have gone soft. We are still struggling for our cause," said another Varela Project convert from the hard-line camp, Rolando "Musculito" Martinez of the Insurrectional Movement for Revolutionary Recuperation. "But we have a new tactic. The "hard-line' now is in Cuba challenging Castro." Martinez said Paya convinced him that reconciliation is the correct path. "You can't win over the Cuban people with threats and vengeance. We have to unite with their suffering," he said. Polls show that more and more exiles no longer support a violent overthrow of the Castro government. Seventy-eight percent favor a peaceful transition, while only 16 percent support violent change. And 59 percent support Paya's petition drive in Cuba, against only 23 percent who oppose it. Exile leaders say the polls show a new political maturity in the wake of Elian. "A majority of exiles is beginning to think about issues rather than react," said Miami banking executive Carlos Saladrigas, who chairs the Cuba Study Group. "The engine of exile politics is moving from the heart to the brain." But hard-liners have rejected the polls, questioning the results as the product of a conspiracy to keep Castro in power. Speaking on Spanish-language radio, Miami Republican congressman Lincoln Diaz-Balart accused the pollsters of trying to undermine the political power of Cuban-Americans in Washington. "That political power bothers them so much that what they are doing is attacking us, attacking the strength we have by sowing confusion and intrigue." It is still too early to predict how exile moderates will use their new voice. But the agenda could have major ramifications for U.S. policy toward Cuba, and the future of Castro's one-party state. During an official visit to the island last year, former President Jimmy Carter publicly supported the Varela Project in a speech broadcast across the island. In December, Paya traveled to Strasbourg to receive the European Parliament's Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought. It was the first time Cuba had allowed him to leave the country for a political event. He was in such demand that he spent six weeks attending events in nine countries, including a meeting with Colin Powell at the State Department. He has since been nominated for the 2003 Nobel Peace Prize by former Czech President Vaclav Havel. Exiles see in Paya the creation of an internal opposition, something lacking in Cuba for decades. "What is taking place in Cuba is a real grass roots civil society movement," said Orlando Gutierrez, 37, secretary of Cuban Democratic Directory, a prodemocracy group in Miami that helped coordinated Paya's visit. "At last there is an alternative voice in the island which is internationally recognized." Exiles say their task now is to nurture and protect the dissidents as best they can. Groups in Miami are already involved in sending donations, including money, as well as basic items such as paper, pens and books. But the dissident movement remains tiny, and is banned from direct participation in island politics. The Christian Liberation Movement headed by Paya is one of the most active of several small dissident groups in Cuba. Apparently concerned by its recent international success, Castro has lately thrown some of the movement's members in jail. Even so, exile leaders predict that their support for the Varela Project will hurt Castro. "We will earn respect as a political force," said Saladrigas. "Castro will no longer be able to dismiss us as the "Miami mafia.' " -- David Adams can be contacted at dadams@sptimes.com
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