 |
||||||||
 |
|
|||||||
|
||||||||
|
 |
Thorns persist but local employment picture rosier
© St. Petersburg Times Memo to job hunters: Tampa Bay's job market is expected to be more bullish this spring than in most other parts of Florida or the United States overall. P.S: Don't bother to move here. Things aren't that good! Gotta hand it to the Tampa Bay job market. It's not exactly humming. The jobs available aren't the highest paying. But given the churning economic uncertainty over Iraq, a code-orange national terrorism alert, and Tuesday's reported drop in consumer confidence to its lowest level in nearly a decade, more area companies say they will add jobs to their permanent workforce in the upcoming April-June quarter than will businesses in most other parts of the state and country. The near-term job outlook in the Tampa Bay area looks positively resilient when compared with such moribund markets in the state as Lakeland, Tallahassee, West Palm Beach, Boca Raton and Broward County. A full 28 percent of Tampa Bay companies say they plan to increase their work force in the second quarter of this year, more than twice the percentage of hiring companies in any of the five markets above, according to a new quarterly survey of 16,000 employers nationwide by Manpower Inc. If 28 percent of area companies want to add people, another 10 percent plan to cut jobs in the next quarter. The net increase? Just 18 percentage points, the difference of 28 minus 10. (Of the remaining area companies, a telling 48 percent plan no increase or decrease, while another 14 percent do not know). That still makes for a more bullish set of numbers than was reported three months ago in the previous Manpower outlook survey. For the first quarter of 2003, only 23 percent of area companies planned to add jobs, and 17 percent planned staff cuts. Net increase? A more modest 6 percentage points. And the latest numbers are dramatically better from a year ago. For the second quarter of 2002, only 7 percent of Tampa Bay companies planned job expansion, while 10 percent expected cutbacks. That resulted in a net decrease of 3 percentage points last spring. Even if the short-term global outlook seems foggy, Tampa Bay's job outlook is strengthening. The quarterly surveys by Manpower, a large nationwide temporary staffing service, have been conducted for 27 years and earned the loyal following of some prominent economists. "Historically, the Manpower survey of hiring intentions has been one of the best leading employment indicators that I am aware of," says Sung Won Sohn, chief economic officer at Wells Fargo & Co. in Minneapolis. Before Tampa Bay's business leaders congratulate themselves too much, let's peel another layer or two off the survey data. Looking at both planned job increases and cuts, at least half a dozen markets in Florida look stronger in the upcoming quarter than Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater. For example, 27 percent of the companies surveyed in Jacksonville plan to hire anew next quarter. But no companies -- zero, zip, nada -- plan to cut jobs there, the survey says. Pensacola boasts a similar outlook with 23 percent of companies planning to add jobs. No companies plan cuts. A few other markets in the state appear vigorous in the upcoming quarter, including Daytona Beach and Sarasota (each gaining 27 percentage points); and Miami (up a whopping 47 percentage points). Statewide on average, 21 percent of Florida employees expect to hire more in the upcoming second quarter, while 9 percent plan cuts. Net increase: 12 percentage points, only two-thirds of the gain anticipated in the Tampa Bay market. Who's likely to hire this spring among Tampa Bay companies? Businesses in construction, durable goods manufacturing, transportation and public utilities, wholesale and retail trade and services, Manpower says. The most likely cutbacks? In finance, insurance and real estate. Nationally, 22 percent of companies plan to add jobs in the second quarter, while 9 percent plan cuts. Businesses worry that if the war lasts more than several months, oil prices will soar, consumer confidence will plummet, and the economy will fall back into recession. Still, the survey found that the South is the nation's most optimistic region, while the Northeast shows the weakest outlook. In Raleigh, N.C., home to Progress Energy and much touted Research Triangle, only 13 percent of businesses in Raleigh and 17 percent in nearby Durham plan to hire (and 3 percent in both cities plan to cut jobs) during the April-June period, Manpower says. In an obviously vigorous Colorado Springs, 37 percent of 30 local employers surveyed plan additional hiring, while only 7 percent plan layoffs. Yet in Tulsa, Okla., 30 percent of local employers say they plan to cut personnel in the next quarter; just 27 percent plan to add workers. So buck up, Tampa Bay. Things could be a lot worse. -- Robert Trigaux can be reached at trigaux@sptimes.com or (727) 893-8405.
 © 2006 • All Rights Reserved • Tampa Bay Times
490 First Avenue South • St. Petersburg, FL 33701 • 727-893-8111 
|
|
Times columns today From the Times Business desk |
