U.S. tourism, airlines will feel war's pinch

Beyond the immediate and overriding concern for the men and women on the war front in Iraq, Americans should understand there will be consequences of the invasion likely to have far greater personal impact on most of us.

Familiar names in the travel industry may cease operations, the emotional value of vacationing could decline greatly, and the rest of the world may no longer be so courteous when Americans visit.

This aftermath may be more pronounced in Florida, where tourism fuels the economy. The state's midrange estimate of damage felt here from the war is that more than 54,000 Floridians could lose their jobs and there would be a 30 percent decline in sales-tax revenues -- a whopping $234-million lost even as state legislators already face a budget crisis.

Yet for many Americans, the aftermath will be most evident as they try to find an affordable ticket on a convenient plane flight.

Already suffering revenue shortfalls because of a declining economy, the national travel and tourism industry was nearly swamped by the waves of fear that rippled from the terrorist attacks of 9/11. Things have not yet returned to normal.

The state tourism-promotion agency, VISIT FLORIDA, last month produced a 31-page economic forecast based on hostilities with Iraq. That report notes that although Florida tourism is just recovering after 9/11, it is ahead of most of the United States in that regard.

The most obvious economic losers in the military conflict will be the airlines. The major U.S. carriers lost at least $8-billion in 2002. USAirways and United entered bankruptcy the same year.

This month, giant American Airlines, which reportedly has more than $27-billion in debt, hired a specialist in bankruptcy law.

The VISIT FLORIDA report notes rumors that Delta also may be considering bankruptcy. Together, American and Delta account for more than 43 percent of all passengers at Florida's 14 largest airports.

The airlines' trade organization, the Air Transport Association, warned before the president's announcement last week that a relatively brief war with Iraq could cost the carriers another $4-billion, resulting in 70,000 layoffs and more bankruptcies.

"The economic risks go far beyond the airline industry -- the stakes for the entire U.S. economy are extremely high," said association president and chief executive James May.

An obvious way to save money is to not fly planes; forecasts are that domestic carriers would cut as many as 2,200 daily flights, eliminating as many as 330,000 seats.

Reducing the supply available would allow the airlines to raise fares, which currently are at relatively low levels.

In its worst-case scenario, the association forecast that if the war with Iraq is accompanied by a terrorist attack within the United States, people's fear of flying would cost the industry a staggering $13-billion, 98,000 jobs and 3,800 daily flights.

In this case, warned the association, a "total industry collapse is virtually certain."

Similarly, the VISIT FLORIDA report takes into account the likely decline in air travel while factoring in higher gas prices, because only 49 percent of the state's visitors fly here.

The forecast includes three economic predictions, with gas prices rising from an average of $2.01 per gallon up to $2.82. Also, the forecast looks at tourism with no further terrorist attacks, with terrorism occuring elsewhere in the United States, and with attacks in Florida.

The worst-case forecast: A precipitous decline in tourists of 50 percent.

Even without more terrorism, says industry analyst Peter Yesawich, the VISIT FLORIDA report "considers there will be some significant suspension of leisure travel immediately following a commencement of hostilities . . . This will not result in 'pent-up demand,' but rather the elimination of some planned vacation activity."

Part of this is because of the emotional response of not wanting to enjoy ourselves on vacation while neighbors or relatives are risking their lives in battle.

Already in the national psyche is what American philosopher Alain de Botton calls the increasing gap between "travel expectations and travel realities." That is, pressured by everyday lives, we tend to put too much emphasis on vacations and often come home disappointed that we simply did not enjoy ourselves enough.

Factor into this the fear of terrorism and the continuing economic decline, and the result is the national downturn in leisure travel. It is not only the airlines feeling this. Twice since 9/11, dwindling attendance has forced Walt Disney World Resort -- the world's single-most popular tourist destination -- to cut back on workers' hours.

Though some areas of the state report robust tourism figures, many beach hotels and motels have not yet returned to the occupancy rates and revenue totals of pre-9/11. Also, revenue from the state tax on rental cars for the first 11 months of 2002 was down 10.5 percent from the same period of 2001.

Overall, state totals for the first 11 months of 2002 put tourist expenditures at just 0.6 percent higher than in 2001.

Without the infusion of those out-of-town dollars, restaurants, souvenir shops, museums, attractions, even airport shuttle companies are affected.

Because we helped rebuild Europe and Japan after World War II, much of the world's populace generally has welcomed U.S. tourists.

Even before President Bush issued his 48-hour ultimatum to Saddam Hussein, there was plenty of evidence that this benign acceptance is likely to change. Two polls released last week found that citizens of several Western European nations strongly disagreed with the military action that, at the time of the polling, was only implied.

Within the past two weeks, freelance writers whose work I have published e-mailed me with these accounts of how Americans are being perceived overseas:

n An American living near Vienna wrote that Austrians cannot understand why President Bush insisted on military action. A comment frequently voiced, said my correspondent, is that because Americans have not fought wars on our own soil or against our neighbors, we don't appreciate the lasting damage of such action.

When America does attack Iraq, she continued, Europeans are unlikely to try to differentiate between those of us who endorse the president's decision and those who oppose it.

A writer living in Colorado said that some American friends touring Italy were refused service three times in small towns because of their nationality.

A New Yorker, fluent in French and visiting that nation again this month, reported the media preoccupation with the standoff between the two old allies. "I clearly sensed growing anger over what is widely regarded as American bullying and arrogance."

In a food shop, he witnessed a discussion between a French-speaking American and a middle-aged local woman who was circulating an antiwar petition. The local insisted that American soldiers had nothing to do with liberating her country from the Germans in World War II.

An American who lives part of the year in Spain wrote from there that "antiwar feeling is overwhelming."

Similarly, Americans, and anyone presumed to be Jewish because they wore yarmulkes or were visiting synagogues, have been harassed in French communities that have large Muslim populations.

This last item was related by D. Bruce McIndoe , CEO of iJet Travel Intelligence. That Annapolis, Md., company assesses the risks to travelers by combing through about 6,000 periodicals and Web sites -- from Reuters to Greenpeace -- and employing 300 agents in various locations, including government and media workers.

All of this data is sifted by workers in Annapolis who are veterans of the intelligence communities of the United States, United Kingdom, former Soviet Union and South Africa. This staff knows who to call to verify reports or forecasts.

McIndoe spoke to three dozen travel editors of U.S. newspapers, meeting in Charleston, S.C., two weeks ago. He said that iJet had already pulled its foreign employees from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

Most of the antiwar feeling before the U.S. invasion, he said, was not directed at everyday Americans or Britons, but at the leaders of the two nations.

"Most foreign nationals now are not going to be aggressive toward Americans but may be assertive, demanding that travelers discuss" the looming attacks, McIndoe said.

McIndoe warned that much of the world's opinion would change with an invasion and, just as important, with efforts by the United States to maintain order once troops had taken control of Iraq.

"If the U.S. occupies Iraq, it will be a festering sore in the Muslim world," he said, with Iraq's neighbor, Iran, fomenting the anger.

Much of the early and continuing response would be directed at such obvious targets as American embassies and military bases. But "in those European countries and cities with substantial Muslim populations, the threat to individuals is on the increase" weeks before the U.S.-led invasion.

There is no way to predict the intensity of such extreme actions, but it seems the attitude of the world toward Americans has changed for the worse, and probably will be so for some long time to come.

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