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Bush faces obstacles on Mideast road map
By DAVID BALLINGRUD, Times Staff Writer
Push may be coming to shove. President Bush, the most powerful man in the world, is on a collision course with "The Bulldozer," Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, over the future of a Palestinian state. It will be a showdown between a president who traveled little and showed scant interest in foreign affairs before his election, and a retired general who has fought his entire adult life to raise a nation out of the desert. In 1948, when Sharon commanded an infantry company in the Alexandroni Brigade in Israel's War of Independence, Bush was a toddler, 2 years old. But today it is Bush, flush with a victory in Iraq and high approval ratings, in the driver's seat. Or is he? By all accounts, the two men get along famously, and since Sept. 11, 2001, they've forged one of the strongest U.S.-Israel relationships in history. In recent months, one of Israel's chief antagonists, Yasser Arafat, has been pushed to the sidelines, and another, Saddam Hussein, has been driven from power and may be dead. And Syria, another of Israel's troublesome neighbors, is being warned by the U.S. to watch its step. Nevertheless, the bond soon may be tested. In building support for the war against Iraq, Bush assured European and Arab nations -- and especially British Prime Minister Tony Blair -- that he would follow a balanced "road map" for peace in the Middle East and the creation of a Palestinian state by 2005. The administration has yet to present a formal plan, but it has made elements of the road map public. It differs in important ways from earlier attempts to broker peace. Most importantly, it shelved Arafat, insisting that the Palestinians produce new leadership. It also calls for parallel, simultaneous steps by Israel and the Palestinians, rather than a sequence of events, any one of which might halt the process if not completed to the satisfaction of the other. In return for withdrawal from occupied Palestinian territories, and the halting of settlement activity, the new Palestinian administration would renounce violence and agree actively to root out terrorist cells responsible for suicide bombings, helped by Israel's security forces. The plan's "quartet" of authors -- the United States, the European Union, the United Nations and Russia -- have said they welcome input on the plan but expect Israel and the Palestinians to follow it. Secretary of State Colin Powell stressed that point last week, after a Sharon representative brought the Bush administration 15 reservations about the plan. No changes for now, Powell said. And there's the rub. The 75-year-old Sharon has earned his "bulldozer" nickname. He is a formidable and controversial figure, a soldier twice elected prime minister to battle terrorism. He is known for aggressive settlement policies in the West Bank and Gaza -- policies opposed by the United States -- and for causing civilian casualties in pursuit of terrorists. For Sharon, his hardline coalition government and his supporters in the United States, the road map may ask too much with too few protections. Israel's numerous friends in Congress, and the powerful Israel lobby, are working hard to soften any impact on Israel. But other Jewish organizations in the United States believe a firm timetable leading to a Palestinian state is the only way to end years of bloody fighting. Bush's job will be difficult. To make the road map work, he must overcome Sharon's objections while keeping Arab nations satisfied with U.S. intentions in the region, in particular the Iraqi rebuilding program. He also will need the help of Palestinian prime minister-designate, Mahmoud Abbas, also known as Abu Mazen, in keeping a lid on terrorism. And there's one more matter. Bush faces a re-election campaign next year, and though his approval ratings float between 70 and 75 percent now, he will be wary of offending Jewish voters and contributors in a key state such as Florida. "The question is not can he (Bush) do all this, but will he?" said Yossi Alpher, a former senior official with Mossad, the Israeli secret service, and a special adviser to former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak. "Is there a will to have a confrontation that is liable to cost him votes (in 2004)? "He has to win your state (Florida)," Alpher said last week. "That's crucial, and to do that he wants Jewish votes and Jewish money. And he wants to hold on to the Christian right as well." Sharon has political worries that limit his flexibility, too. He has long supported the controversial Jewish settlements in territories claimed by the Palestinians, and has hedged on how far he will go to halt or dismantle them -- a key component of the road map. "Bush has to be prepared for a confrontation with Sharon, and it will be a confrontation," Alpher said. "Sharon is committed to the settlements, and he has his right-wing coalition government to keep intact." All this jeopardizes the road map before it sees the light of day, Alpher said. "I think Bush will push and prod," he said. "But if it comes to the road map or (winning) Florida, I think he will opt for Florida -- unless the situation in Iraq is so sensitive he has to deliver to the Arab world a peace process." Others had a similar gloomy view. "In the Israeli government now, there is an absolute antipathy toward a Palestinian state," said Josh Ruebner, co-founder of Jews for Peace in Palestine and Israel, and a former Analyst of Middle East Affairs for Congressional Research Service. "I'm afraid the road map is just an attempt to mollify critics in the Arab world." CAIR, the Washington-based Council on American-Islamic Relations, agrees. "Anything that depends on the whim of Ariel Sharon is not going anywhere in this country," said spokesman Ibrahim Hooper. "Likud (Sharon's political party) policy is U.S. policy. "Nobody really took it seriously anyway," he said. "Well, maybe Tony Blair did." What does Sharon want? Sharon and the Israel lobby in the United States -- the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC -- have said they support the road map in general, but have problems with specifics. Israeli reservations concern the plan's call for parallel steps by each side, rather than an initial end to violence by Palestinians. Sharon doesn't like the plan's timetable for a Palestinian state without guarantees of performance. Sharon has said he is prepared to make "painful concessions" on behalf of peace. But how painful? "There is one thing that I told President Bush a number of times," he told the Israeli newspaper Haaretz. "I made no concessions in the past, and I will make no concessions now, or ever make concessions in the future, with regard to anything that is related to the security of Israel. ... This is the historic responsibility that I bear for the future and the fate of the Jewish people." That sense of national peril, some say, makes Sharon and his supporters tough-to-budge negotiators. "The administration is being pushed by Israel's supporters in Congress to set preconditions that would torpedo any chance the plan has for success," said Lewis Roth, assistant executive director of Americans for Peace Now."At this point no congressional involvement is needed, but they are trying to get involved." But the plan still may work, Roth said. Working in its favor is that, since first mentioning the road map in mid 2002, the popular Bush repeatedly has said that he is committed to it, with the other members of the quartet. The Palestinians also have problems as they prepare to deal with the plan. They seemingly have pushed aside Arafat and have nominated a new prime minister, Abbas. He has yet to be confirmed, however, and Arafat still lingers on the sideline, his role uncertain. "Abu Mazen must be confirmed," said Alpher, the former aide to Barak, "and it has to be clear he has real authority. If those things don't happen, Sharon is let off the hook right now." Tensions erupted Saturday when Abbas stormed out of a meeting with Arafat and top aides trying to sort through the workings of the new government. Last week, Alpher came to Washington on behalf of Americans For Peace Now, a U.S. organization formed in support of Peace Now, his group's Israeli counterpart. Peace Now was formed in 1978 by 348 reserve officers of the Israel Defense Forces who believed that only a negotiated end to the conflict in the Middle East could bring true security to Israel. Sharon, Alpher said, is working with AIPAC, "trying in a subtle way to demand that the spirit of the road map be altered from a parallel one to a sequential one. "In a parallel process both sides move simultaneously toward peace. In a sequential one, an impossible standard is set for the Palestinians -- absolute peace and quiet -- before Israel would be required to act at all." That condition dooms the process, he argued. Bush could force Sharon to accept the U.S. terms, said Ruebner. "The United States has immense leverage, if it wanted to use it," Ruebner said. "It could set in motion today a process that would ultimately bring peace in the region. How? It could tell Israel no more military aid until it complies with U.N. resolutions vis a vis the occupied territories." Who will blink? "That's hard to judge," said Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "There is a lot of international pressure to step up (U.S.) activities," he said. "The British can barely contain themselves on the need for the U.S. to keep an even hand in the Middle East. Whether that means we will do it, we'll see." Alterman said he believes Bush is "sincere when he talks about the suffering of the Palestinian people, but I doubt that he sees a real Palestinian partner in the peace process right now. He may not want to commit his time and prestige to an unsuccessful effort."
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