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Castro squeezes his opposition, despite - or to encourage - major political and economic consequences.
By DAVID ADAMS, Times Latin America Correspondent
© St. Petersburg Times, published April 20, 2003
MIAMI -- Just when political opposition in Cuba seemed to have found its voice, down came the shutters.
In the harshest crackdown on dissent in nearly four decades, the Cuban government has jailed 75 opposition activists and independent professionals for allegedly conspiring with U.S. diplomats against the state. Sentences of up to 28 years were handed down this month in a series of summary trials.
Cuba's latest wave of repression has caught politicians and analysts by surprise. While the arrest of dissidents in Cuba is not unusual, the number of detentions and the severity of the sentences is almost unheard of.
"This is a throwback to the 1960s," said Damian Fernandez, a Cuban-American scholar at Florida International University in Miami. "It's really retro. We have not seen these kinds of indictments since the early days of the revolution."
Cuba's action could have major consequences for its political and economic relations with the United States and Europe, according to analysts.
The arrests will likely freeze efforts in Congress to relax the 40-year-old economic embargo against the island, and may hobble a new initiative to improve economic ties with the European Union.
With so much to lose, the question many observers ask is: Why would Cuban leader Fidel Castro take such a political risk?
Many theories abound. More straightforward versions focus on Castro's ideological rejection of any democratic opposition to his rule, as well as possible fissures in Cuba's powerful one-party state apparatus.
Cuban officials are alarmed by talk of "regime change," the new buzz word in official Washington circles. "They may be next so they are battening down the hatches," said Wayne Smith, a former U.S. diplomat in Cuba who is now a leading critic of U.S. policy toward the island.
Others see more Machiavellian motives, such as Castro's record of picking fights with the United States to distract attention from domestic problems, such as energy shortages and food rationing.
Any interpretation inevitably leads back to the dissidents themselves, who, while they remain few in number, have begun to play a more prominent role in challenging Castro's rule.
"This is a regime that finally has an opposition and this is a regime that cannot tolerate an opposition," said Fernandez.
Cuban officials insist the dissidents aren't a threat to the government. Yet officials say the crackdown was necessary to protect Cuba's independence. Cuba accuses the Bush administration of organizing and financing the now-jailed dissidents as part of a subversive campaign to undermine the Castro government.
"What is really dangerous is the policy of the U.S. government ... to fabricate these groups," said Dagoberto Rodriguez, head of Cuba's diplomatic mission in Washington, known as the Cuban Interests Section.
He pointed to the actions of his American counterpart in Cuba, the head of the U.S. Interests Section in Havana, James Cason, who meets regularly with island dissidents. Cuban officials are also angered by a U.S. government program to "develop civil society" in Cuba, including supplying books and equipment to local "independent" journalists, economists and librarians.
In a three-hour press conference in Havana last week, Cuban Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque laid out a long list of complaints. Among these was alleged U.S. encouragement of illegal emigration from Cuba, including seven recent hijackings of Cuban airplanes and vessels at sea.
Perez Roque accused the Bush administration of ordering the Interests Section to be turned into a "headquarters of internal subversion in Cuba."
As part of the evidence, Perez Roque described meetings between Cason and some of the jailed dissidents, including one meeting held at Cason's home. He accused Washington of providing $22-million in funding in the past six years for dissident activities.
Ironically, U.S. officials do not deny much of Cuba's version. Instead, they say Washington has never hid its policy of support for civil society in Cuba.
In a speech in Miami last week, Cason pointed out that his actions "were fully consistent with U.S. policy and with diplomatic protocol." He noted that Cuban diplomats in the United States enjoyed "full access to the breadth of U.S. society," and were free to meet with critics of U.S. policy.
He stressed that the U.S. government does not provide direct cash support, instead channeling about $5-million to $6-million annually through private groups in the United States.
While promotion of democracy and human rights is a feature of U.S. diplomacy worldwide, Cason's conduct in Havana has its critics. At least one Cuba analyst advised Cason that his "in your face" approach in Cuba was likely to backfire, potentially harming the nascent movement. The dissident groups were also deeply penetrated by Cuban state security agents, he warned.
As it turned out, during the recent trials 12 supposed dissidents testified against their colleagues in court, revealing themselves to be undercover agents for the Cuban government.
Nestor Baguer, alias agent "Octavio," was considered one of the island's top independent journalists. The meeting at Cason's house was organized by another agent, Manuel David Orrio, posing as a dissident journalist.
But the risk of penetration may have been one the administration was prepared to take. The net result -- widespread condemnation of Cuba -- could help the administration achieve a long-desired goal of broadening international pressure on Cuba.
Since the arrests, Cuba has endured an almost unprecedented avalanche of criticism from politicians, intellectuals, human rights groups and foreign governments.
But, in a victory for Castro, the United Nations Commission on Human Rights meeting in Geneva last week voted against condemning Cuba's crackdown.
The arrests -- and the executions of three men who hijacked a Havana ferry -- are also having an impact on the U.S. business community. In recent years, companies have eagerly exploited business openings in Cuba created by a softening of the embargo during the Clinton administration. That interest had remained active, despite efforts by the Bush administration to discourage dealings with Cuba.
"Now there's been a 180-degree turn," said John Kavulich, president of the U.S-Cuba Trade and Economic Council, which represents U.S. businesses.
"Companies are postponing visits to Cuba, especially senior-level executives," he said. "If the overall relationship continues to be more problematic, then U.S. companies may lessen their interest in doing business with Cuba."
Proposed congressional amendments for any major softening of the embargo, including restrictions on travel to Cuba, are now dead, analysts said.
But Tampa congressman Jim Davis, who visited Cuba for the first time last month, said he plans to press ahead with a less ambitious plan to ease restrictions on sales of medical products to Cuba.
Davis condemned the recent arrests as "barbaric," and questioned whether Castro had any real desire to normalize relations with the United States. During his visit, Davis said he met several dissident figures. At least three are among those jailed in the recent crackdown.
Some Miami Cuban hard-liners are calling on Washington to punish Cuba by restricting charter flights between Miami and Havana, and cutting cash remittances sent by exile families to relatives on the island.
But more moderate exiles smell a trap, arguing that Castro needs someone to blame for rising dissent and worsening economic conditions.
"What Castro is hoping is that the United States will overreact," said Joe Garcia, executive director of the Cuban American National Foundation in Miami.
If remittances and travel to Cuba are cut, Garcia said Cuba could use that to turn the blame for its political and economic problems on the United States.
To be sure, the dissident movement has suffered a heavy blow, its supporters concede. But political opposition in Cuba may not be so easily crushed.
Opposition to Castro has grown in recent years, coalescing for the first time around the so-called Varela Project, a pro-democracy movement seeking a referendum on political reforms.
Of those arrested last month, 42 were Varela Project organizers, according to its leader, Oswaldo Paya.
"The Varela Project has a base, with tens of thousands of people supporting it," he said. "The government is frightened that people will learn about it. Everything else is a smokescreen."
He pointed out that the project delivered a petition to the Cuban National Assembly last year signed by 11,020 people. Since then the petition has grown to 30,000 nationwide.
The Varela Project has also won international support. During an official visit to the island last year, former President Jimmy Carter urged Cuba to heed the Varela Project.
In December, Paya was awarded the European Parliament's Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought. On a six-week trip, Paya was feted by foreign leaders, including a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell at the State Department. He has since been nominated for the 2003 Nobel Peace Prize.
Though Paya and others were under constant government watch, he said project members remain committed. "We will continue, and if we cannot because we are in jail or we have lost our lives, others will continue it."