Nearly a quarter of Florida's third-graders failed the state's FCAT reading test this year, and now teachers and parents are waiting anxiously to see how many of those 43,000 kids will be denied promotion.
The 23 percent failure rate is an improvement from last year, when 27 percent of the state's third-graders didn't pass the reading test. But the stakes this year are much higher.
Gov. Jeb Bush, who has made reading one of his top priorities, says Florida's third-graders must demonstrate adequate reading skills or repeat the grade. Starting next week, the state's teachers will sort through test scores and a new state law while making heart-wrenching decisions about their 8- and 9-year old students.
Not all of the students who failed the test will have to repeat third grade. They still have other chances and other tests to show they are capable readers.
"I want to avoid this natural assumption that all these students will be retained," Education Commissioner Jim Horne said Friday.
Horne and Bush plan to release the results in a news conference Monday. But scores arrived early in some school districts, and the news started dribbling out Friday. Though Horne was uncomfortable discussing specifics before a formal announcement, he was happy to note the obvious improvement.
"These results are great news," Horne said. "It surpasses our expectations."
The improvement of 4 percentage points means 7,300 more kids passed this year than last, even though slightly fewer third-graders took the reading test.
The focus on third-grade reading skills marks a dramatic new step for Florida. Prior to this year, the stakes in Bush's "high-stakes" testing program have been focused on schools.
Schools where students performed well on tests got rewards, and schools where students struggled were sanctioned.
But now, in keeping with Bush's pledge to end social promotion, the consequences of lackluster achievement will be felt by the students themselves.
The laser-beam focus on reading is based on the widely held belief that if students can't read by third grade, they will fall behind and struggle throughout their school careers. As Horne likes to say: "In third grade, you learn to read. In fourth grade you read to learn."
Though 27 percent of the state's third-graders failed the reading section of the Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test last year, only 3 percent were retained. Both Bush and Horne declared that figure unacceptable.
By state law, third-graders who fail FCAT reading must be retained unless they can show they are capable readers in other ways.
The students, for example, already have taken another reading test - one the state uses to make national comparisons - and the results should be released Monday. Though the standard on that test is tougher than the FCAT's, it should enable perhaps 5 percent of the failing students to earn passage to fourth grade.
Students who already have been retained are likely to be promoted because research shows that multiple retentions make it much less likely that a child will finish school.
Students who can show adequate reading skills through a portfolio of class work and other test results will be allowed to move on.
And students will have one more chance to take another tough test, either before or after summer school, to show their reading skills.
The work of figuring out exactly who should be retained will start as early as Monday, when the test results arrive at schools.
Many third-grade teachers have been dreading the task ahead of them. They will need to see who failed the test and then look at their performance on the other test. If they fell short on both, the teachers will have to see if the student's portfolio is impressive enough to get into fourth-grade. In most districts, teachers already have been collecting material and scores for the portfolios.
If the student falls short on all three, the teacher will have a difficult phone call to make to the student's parent.
The retention question has stirred parents like few other education issues.
Some mothers in the Palm Harbor area became activists, and stood outside the community library with a petition. Earlier this week, Sally Caron and three other women with children at Ozona Elementary School went to Tallahassee. They met with the governor to talk about the issue and how it affects their children.
"The schools are anxious, the parents are anxious, the kids are anxious," said Sandy Ramos, assistant superintendent in charge of instruction for Pasco County schools. "Everyone knows to clear their plates off when this comes in. We've got a lot of work to do."
For complete statewide FCAT writing results, including comparisons to last year's scores, go to www.tampabay.com/fcat
