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BRANT JAMESFor Bobby Frankel, a Triple Crown victory today would add the ultimate jewel to his success as a trainer.
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - If there's anything that Bobby Frankel knows better than training thoroughbred race horses, it may be betting on them.
Long before he became one of the dominant figures in his field, he spent much of the 1960s cashing winning tickets at Aqueduct and Monmouth Park.
Standing atop a low stone wall beside Barn 43 at Churchill Downs on Friday, the 61-year-old Brooklyn native melded both of his passionate vocations for the ultimate insider tip sheet.
Take Empire Maker today in the 129th running of the Kentucky Derby.
"Bet at your own risk against him."
Frankel knows that horseplayers will wake this morning angling for the magical, profitable combination in the 11/4 classic. Casual fans will fall in love with an underdog because rooting for the favorite is boring. He would have done the same thing before he broke into the business as a hotwalker and within a few months was training horses at Aqueduct.
Frankel made his name by turning horses he had claimed into stakes winners. When Hialeah refused to grant him stall space in 1970, he moved his small operation to California and began again.
Frankel's reputation as a winner who took care of his horses convinced Juddmonte Farms, owned by Saudi prince Khalid Abdullah, to hand Frankel control of its North American stable in 1990.
The results have been more than satisfactory. Frankel was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 1995 and won his third consecutive Eclipse Award as top trainer last year. He won 43 stakes (14 Grade I), earned $17,748,340 in purses - second-best all-time - and increased his all-time earnings to more than $100-million.
Frankel had initial success with turf horses, but Juddmonte eventually began sending him younger stock for an assault on the Triple Crown. In 2000, he finished second in his first Kentucky Derby with Aptitude and repeated the performance in the Belmont Stakes.
Impressed with the success with younger horses, Juddmonte kept the prospects, like Empire Maker, coming. Impressed with his four Eclipse Awards, other major owners started sending theirs.
The only missing piece of the empire, for both Frankel and Juddmonte Farms, is a victory in a Triple Crown race. The trainer and the farm have anticipated today since Empire Maker, a home-bred son of Unbridled, was born.
Frankel can't imagine him failing now.
"When you look at it, this is a really easy race to handicap if my horse runs his race," Frankel said. There is simply too much going for Empire Maker, he said.
There's the breeding: As the son of the 1990 Kentucky Derby winner, Empire Maker should possess the genetic stuff to master 11/4 miles and beyond.
There's the jockey: Jerry Bailey is the leading rider in the nation in earnings with more than $5-million, and he banged out winner after winner on Thursday and Friday at Churchill Downs.
"Jerry is in the zone right now, and when they are, they make the right moves" Frankel said. "And he makes things a lot easier. I don't have to go into the paddock and talk strategy with him. I know what he will do.
"How many Eclipse Awards has he won?"
Six in the past eight years.
Even the most accomplished jockey and trainer cannot control every variable, but Frankel said his colt's two noteworthy worries are no big deal. Frankel asserts, with perturbed zeal, that Empire Maker's bruised foot is no longer issue. Then there was his "acting up" on Friday. During a morning workout with exercise rider Jose Cuevas, he made a sharp right turn at the entrance to the barn area, requiring an outrider to bring him under control. Not a big deal, Frankel said. The colt did the same thing in the days before he won the Florida Derby and Wood Memorial. Thing is, 200 members of the media weren't there to see it.
But 15 other horses will break from the gate at 6:04 p.m. today and there is no controlling how they will navigate the 11/4 miles. Or how they will react to 100,000 revelers, or if they'll succumb to a maddening collection of variables.
Not everyone considers him invincible.
"We don't have a Spectacular Bid, I don't think, or a Seattle Slew," said D. Wayne Lukas, who will start long-shots Scrimshaw and Ten Cents a Shine. "We've just got a darn nice horse."
Frankel the handicapper has an idea how it play out, though. Speedsters Peace Rules, Buddy Gil, Indian Express and Funny Cide - if his stamina defies his pedigree - should set the pace and turn down the stretch on the lead. That's where closers like Empire Maker and Ten Most Wanted should make their move.
As much as Frankel has made a career from assessing, he seems resigned to a certain inevitability in the nature of things. The comforting part is, he thinks he has fate handicapped perfectly this time.
"The script is written already," Frankel said. "If he's meant to win, he's going to win. No horse can beat him if he runs his race."